Oil prices surge 35% with WTI crude jumping to $90.90/barrel and Brent crude at $92.69/barrel, marking the largest weekly gain since 1983.

Trading volume spikes dramatically as Strait of Hormuz shipping nears a standstill, disrupting 20% of global oil supply.

War risk premium is estimated at $13/barrel above fair value, with analysts projecting a potential $100-$150 range if conflict persists.

Market Overview

WTI crude breaks through key resistance at $87, with next targets in the $95-$100 zone if momentum continues.

RSI enters overbought territory above 70, suggesting a potential short-term pullback despite the strong bullish trend.

Support levels are established at $84, $80.77, and $77.65, with a critical defense line at $74.64.

Market volatility (OVX) surges to extreme levels, reflecting heightened uncertainty and hedging demand.

Core Driving Factors

Iran war escalation triggers supply disruption fears following US-Israeli strikes on February 28, 2026, sparking retaliatory actions .

Strait of Hormuz blockade threatens 20% of global oil and LNG shipments, with tanker traffic reportedly near zero.

Qatar halts LNG production representing 20% of global supply, while Kuwait reduces oil production as a precautionary measure.

Energy Minister warns $150/barrel is possible if tankers cannot pass through Hormuz, risking global economic collapse.

Trading Strategy

Recommend cautious long positions with stop-loss at $84 and a target of $100-$105 for a sustained conflict scenario.

Volatility strategies via options are favored given expected continued aggressive price swings.

High-leverage traders should reduce exposure and set strict stop-losses given the extreme volatility environment.

Risk Warning

Historical data shows geopolitical shocks often have short-lived impacts, but current political uncertainty is a core pricing variable.

Emerging economies like India and China face severe pressure from higher import bills, currency depreciation, and rising inflation.

Airlines and manufacturing sectors face significant margin compression from sustained high energy costs.