Everyone is focused on bombs, but very few are paying attention to water.

The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed right now, and if it remains blocked, it will affect everyone reading this. Here’s what could happen:

The Strait is only 21 miles wide, with navigable lanes just 2 miles in each direction. Current traffic: zero.

20 million barrels of oil pass daily—20% of the world’s total supply.

Oil:

Brent crude is $83. Analysts say if this continues, it could rise to $100. According to Deutsche Bank, a complete blockade could push it to $200.

JP Morgan: If this lasts more than three weeks, Gulf storage will fill, production will be forced to halt, and Brent could reach $120.

Only 2.6 million barrels/day can go via alternative pipelines—out of 20 million. No real substitute exists.

Natural Gas & LNG:

20% of global LNG passes through this route. Almost all of Qatar’s exports go through here.

Qatar Energy declared force majeure, halting production. European gas futures nearly doubled in 48 hours.

30% of Europe’s jet fuel is shipped through the Strait.

Pakistan gets 99% of its LNG from Qatar and UAE, Bangladesh 72%, India 53%. Prolonged blockage = power outages.

Asia:

84% of the oil through Hormuz goes to Asia. China, India, Japan, and South Korea together purchase 69% of crude through the Strait.

Japan imports 95% of its crude from the Middle East; continued closure threatens the yen and risks stagflation.

South Korea: 68% of supply through Hormuz; could see the biggest crash since 2008.

India faces a double hit: half its LNG is tied to the Gulf and Brent prices. Rising crude = more expensive LNG.

China imports 11 million barrels/day; half from the Middle East, 90% from Iran. If Hormuz closes, China will compete fiercely for Atlantic shipments.

Shipping:

Major shipping lines (Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, MSC, CMA CGM) suspended services, rerouting via Africa → weeks of delays.

Insurance withdrawn until March 5; even willing ships cannot pass.

Supertanker rates jumped $37,000 → $177,000/day, costs passed to consumers.

Houthis restarted attacks in the Red Sea; the Suez route is also affected → both key passages at risk simultaneously.

Inflation:

Brent has risen 36% YTD. Expensive energy = faster inflation.

Energy prices affect food, transport, industry, electricity.

Analysts: “Potentially 3x worse than the 1970 Arab Oil Embargo.”

Timeline:

Week 1 manageable with strategic reserves.

By Week 3 → reserves full, production halts, and prices spike.

This is the part of the conflict that directly hits your wallet.