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Overall Market
Data source: TradingView
In our last report, we pointed out how closely this market setup mirrors the 2022 bear cycle. We thought a quick bounce from the 60k low was possible, but that might not be the real bottom. We anticipated the price to trade between 65k and 68k for a bit before making any steady push higher. At the same time, we warned that there was still a real chance of one final big drop, so it was better to position with that risk in mind.
Our earlier call for a bounce from the 65k level was based on three clear signals lining up at once. First, the fear and greed index dropped to deeply oversold levels that have often triggered short term reversals in the past. Second, our desk noticed a solid pickup in Bitcoin buying activity. And third, miner selling pressure eased off noticeably after the February 6 crash and price traded below $70k.
On February 28, the United States and Israel carried out a joint operation called Operation Epic Fury. They targeted Iran’s nuclear and missile sites, and reports indicated the death of Supreme Leader Khamenei. Iran hit back immediately with missile and drone attacks on Israel and US bases, and the fighting, which also involved Hezbollah, dragged on through the rest of the week. With regular markets closed over the weekend, crypto became the main place for real time price discovery. Bitcoin dropped about 3 percent to $63k at first, then recovered to the $67k to $68k range. Ethereum fell as low as $1835 before rallying roughly 10 percent back to the $2k level. Oil and gold jumped hard as safe havens, while riskier assets sold off initially but then staged a partial recovery.
What stood out to us was how Bitcoin showed real relative strength compared to other risky assets during the escalation, even as stocks and bonds took pressure. Gold and the US dollar did their usual safe haven rally, but Bitcoin’s performance suggests it is increasingly being seen as another store of value, especially in the Middle East. We believe part of BTC surge was driven by the local capital flows there. People facing wartime limits on physical gold and foreign currencies simply turned to Bitcoin as the easiest and most practical way to protect their wealth and move it across borders.
That said, the momentum after the surge has clearly started to fade. After Bitcoin briefly touched 74k on Wednesday, buying pressure dried up and the price has since pulled back to around 70.5k. The bear flag pattern we spotted on the charts is still intact, so we expect Bitcoin to keep trading sideways in that range for the next week or two unless a strong new catalyst appears.
We are sticking to our core view: the bear cycle bottom is not in yet, but it is getting close. We still see 54k as the most likely low point for this cycle. A high volume breakout above the bear flag would be the first real sign of a sustained recovery that could run much further than our current base case. Without that signal, our main scenario stays the same. Bitcoin will keep consolidating in this wide range, and we will probably have one last capitulation drop to clear out the remaining liquidity and set a proper cycle low.
Macro at a glance
Weekly Macro Highlights (February 26 - March 4, 2026)
Thursday, Feb 26, 2026
US initial jobless claims were 212K, below the forecasted 217K and higher than last week’s 208K. Claims staying low suggests the labour market remains resilient, which can keep the Fed cautious about easing too fast.
Friday, Feb 27, 2026
Japan Tokyo core CPI (YoY) for February was 1.8%, above the forecasted 1.7% but lower than the prior 2.0%. Sticky but easing inflation supports the BoJ’s gradual normalization path without forcing an immediate acceleration in tightening.
Germany CPI (YoY) for February (prelim) was 1.9%, below the forecasted 2.0% and lower than the prior 2.1%.
US PPI (MoM) for January rose 0.5%, above the forecasted 0.3% and higher than the prior 0.4%. core PPI (MoM) for January rose 0.8%, above the forecasted 0.3% and higher than the prior 0.6%. This is a meaningful inflation flag that can reprice rate-cut expectations if it persists in downstream inflation measures.
Monday, Mar 2, 2026
BoC Deputy Governor Kozicki emphasized that Supply-side shocks are now bigger driver of inflation than in the past, and the central bank might need policy restraint to bring inflation back to target.
US S&P Global manufacturing PMI (Feb, final) was 51.6, above the forecasted 51.2 and higher than the prior 51.2.
US ISM manufacturing PMI for February was 52.4, above the forecasted 51.7 but slightly below the prior 52.6. Both PMI data suggests that the manufacturing sector in US is in expansion
Tuesday, Mar 3, 2026
Eurozone CPI (YoY) for February (prelim) rose 1.9%, above the forecasted 1.7% and higher than the prior 1.7%. core CPI (YoY) for February (prelim) was 2.4%, above the forecasted 2.2% and higher than the prior 2.2%. A firmer core print is the most policy-relevant signal and may push markets to price fewer or later ECB cuts.
Wednesday, Mar 4, 2026
China manufacturing PMI for February was 49.0, below the forecasted 49.1 and lower than the prior 49.3. Remaining below 50 points to ongoing manufacturing contraction and reinforces the case for continued policy support.
US ADP nonfarm employment change for February was 63K, above the forecasted 50K and sharply higher than the prior 11K. The rebound suggests hiring is holding up ahead of the official payrolls report, reducing fears of a sudden labor-market deterioration.
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