Bitcoin could reach $11 million per coin by Q1 2036, according to a new forecast by Joe Burnett, Vice President of Bitcoin Strategy at Strive.
The Core Argument: AI-Driven Deflation
The Core Argument: AI-Driven Deflation
Burnett’s thesis starts with productivity growth powered by Artificial Intelligence (AI).
He argues that AI automation will significantly reduce the cost of goods and services, creating sustained deflationary pressure across the real economy.
In a debt-based fiat system, deflation can be dangerous because:
Wages and asset prices decline
But debts (mortgages, corporate loans, sovereign debt) remain fixed in nominal terms
This imbalance could destabilize the financial system.
To prevent a deflationary spiral, Burnett believes central banks and governments would expand the money supply by injecting liquidity into the system. Over time, this monetary expansion would inflate the value of scarce assets like Bitcoin.
The $11 Million Assumption
The forecast is based on two major assumptions:
Bitcoin captures 12% of total global financial assets by 2036.
Global wealth compounds at 7% annually over the next decade.
Currently, Bitcoin represents about 0.2% of global financial assets.
To reach $11M per coin, Bitcoin’s market cap would need to increase more than 176 times, reaching approximately $230 trillion.
Analyst Perspective
Nic Puckrin, co-founder of Coin Bureau, noted that such a valuation would:
Be roughly 10 times larger than the current U.S. M2 money supply
Be nearly 4 times bigger than today’s U.S. equity market
Approach double the current global GDP
The implied compound annual growth rate (CAGR) would be around 53%. Historically, Bitcoin has delivered an average CAGR of about 60% from 2015 to 2024, though growth would likely slow as the asset matures.
The “Digital Credit” Thesis
Burnett also introduces a second demand driver: Digital Credit.
He points to Strategy (the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin) as an early example of this model.
The concept works like this:
A publicly traded company accumulates large Bitcoin reserves
It issues securities backed by its Bitcoin holdings
Raises capital
Uses the capital to buy more Bitcoin
Generates dollar-denominated yield for investors
Burnett believes this could create a self-reinforcing cycle of Bitcoin accumulation, forming the early stages of a credit system anchored in verifiably scarce money
Comparison With Other Forecasts
ARK Invest previously projected:
$1.5 million Bitcoin price by 2030 (bull case)
$300,000 in its bear case
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin was trading near $68,000, down more than 13% over the previous 30 days.
Conclusion
Burnett’s long-term thesis follows this chain:
AI-driven productivity → Deflation → Monetary expansion → Scarce asset inflation → Bitcoin at $11M
While highly bullish, the forecast depends on AI adoption, global monetary policy responses, macroeconomic conditions, and long-term Bitcoin adoption trends.
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