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stablecoin issuer to $100, pointing to rising oil prices and shifting Federal Reserve expectations as key drivers.
Mizuho Raises Circle Price Target While Keeping Neutral Rating
Mizuho analysts Dan Dolev and Alexander Jenkins lifted their target for Circle Internet Financial (NYSE: CRCL) from $90 to $100, while still sticking to an impartial rating. The move reflects macroeconomic tailwinds rather than sudden changes in Circle’s core business.
The analysts tied the adjustment largely to recent energy price gains following escalating Middle East tensions. West Texas Intermediate crude rose roughly 7% to 8% in recent sessions, while Brent crude advanced about 17% across five trading days.
Higher oil prices often translate into stronger inflation expectations, which in turn complicate the Federal Reserve’s ability to cut interest rates. For Circle, in terms of the Mizuho analysts’ perspective, that dynamic matters because the company generates most of its revenue from interest earned on reserves backing the USDC stablecoin.
Circle earns interest primarily from short-term U.S. Treasuries and other low-risk assets held to support USDC circulation. When rates remain elevated, those reserves produce larger yields and contribute more directly to the firm’s income.
Mizuho estimated that reduced expectations for Fed rate cuts could add roughly 1% to Circle’s revenue projections for both 2026 and 2027. The analysts also pointed to a rising probability that the Fed may avoid rate reductions entirely next year.
At press time, data from the CME Fedwatch tool shows the extreme upside potential of no rate cuts in 2026 has roughly doubled in recent weeks. For a company whose profits lean heavily on interest income, Mizuho believes that scenario offers a helpful boost. The tool currently shows that the chances of no change happening at the March 18 meeting stand at 97.3%.
Markets appeared to take notice. Circle shares jumped more than 24% over the week leading into the Mizuho analyst’s note and gained another 6% on the day it circulated. On Wednesday, shares are up 4% a few hours before the closing bell.
The stock traded between roughly $101 and $103 during the latest session, reaching levels not seen in about four months. Presently, the rally has pushed shares beyond Mizuho’s newly minted price target.
The recent climb builds on momentum from Circle’s fourth-quarter 2025 earnings report released in late February. At that time, the company posted results that exceeded expectations, triggering a sharp rebound after months of heavy losses.
Circle’s stock had previously fallen nearly 80% from highs reached in 2025 before staging the latest recovery. Analysts partly attributed the quick rebound to a short squeeze as investors repositioned around the earnings report.
Even with the improved outlook, analysts continue to flag long-term risks. Stablecoin regulation is evolving across major markets, and additional entrants could pressure margins if the sector becomes more competitive.
For now, however, Circle remains tightly linked to macroeconomic forces. Oil prices, inflation data and signals from the Federal Reserve may matter almost as much as developments inside the company itself.
FAQ 🔎
Why did Circle’s stock rise this week? Circle shares gained after Mizuho raised its price target to $100 and cited higher interest rate expectations supporting revenue from USDC reserves.
How does Circle make money from USDC? Circle earns interest on U.S. Treasury and cash reserves that back the USDC stablecoin.
Why do higher interest rates help Circle? Elevated rates increase the yield on reserves backing USDC, boosting Circle’s interest income.
What risks could affect Circle’s long-term growth? Growing competition and evolving stablecoin regulations could compress profit margins over time.
to a high of $73,792, rekindling the debate about its “digital gold” status. The cryptocurrency has climbed 10% since Monday, pushing its market cap to $1.46 trillion.
A Shift in Correlation
Bitcoin maintained a strong upward trajectory on Wednesday, breaching the $73,000 mark for the first time since Feb. 4. The cryptocurrency surged to $73,792, momentarily appearing poised to break through the $74,000 resistance level. Despite a slight retreat to just over $73,000 by midday, bitcoin remained up 7% over a 24-hour period. This resilience made it one of the few gaining assets on the fourth day of the escalating Middle East conflict involving the U.S., Israel and Iran.
Since Monday, when it traded near $65,500, bitcoin has climbed 10% — a feat that has reignited the debate over its digital gold credentials. For context, physical gold retreated from a Monday high of over $5,400 per ounce to close at $5,000 the following day, sliding in tandem with global equities. While gold saw a modest recovery on March 4, it remained more than 3% below its Monday opening price.
This divergence has provided a respite for the bitcoin community, which spent much of February struggling to defend the safe-haven narrative. Previously, bitcoin showed a high correlation with the Nasdaq and broader tech stocks. However, during the first three days of March, that correlation vanished as the Nasdaq plunged alongside other major indices while bitcoin moved higher.
While U.S. equities and gold both staged a rebound on Wednesday, observers warn that the Nasdaq remains highly reactive to headlines regarding the Strait of Hormuz or potential shifts in Federal Reserve policy. Meanwhile, bitcoin’s surge pushed its market capitalization from $1.43 trillion in the morning session to $1.46 trillion by 12:30 p.m. EST.
Expert Analysis: Fear vs. Resilience
Remarking on bitcoin’s ability to hold above the $68,000 level, Lacie Zhang, a research analyst at Bitget Wallet, noted:
“The persistence of extreme fear in crypto markets alongside relatively stable prices suggests the market may be approaching the end of a capitulation phase rather than entering a new structural downtrend,” Zhang said. “With the Crypto Fear & Greed Index hovering around 10–15 for nearly a month while bitcoin holds above $68,000, sentiment appears far weaker than underlying price resilience would imply.”
Zhang added that the divergence in leveraged Nasdaq-100 ETFs — where the inverse SQQQ has gained roughly 6% year-to-date while the triple-long TQQQ has fallen 8% — reflects a broader defensive tilt in risk assets.
“ Bitcoin’s ability to hold key levels during this defensive rotation suggests that institutional participants may be accumulating patiently rather than exiting outright,” Zhang said. “For consumers, the environment favors disciplined accumulation over emotional reactions, as institutions increasingly view bitcoin as a maturing asset class.”
FAQ ❓
Why did bitcoin surge past $73K while Nasdaq fell? Because bitcoin decoupled from tech stocks, showing resilience amid U.S. market volatility.
How did the regional conflict affect crypto? Bitcoin gained even as tensions escalated, contrasting with gold and equities sliding.
Is bitcoin acting like “digital gold” for investors? Yes, its 10% climb since Monday reignited safe‑haven debates.
What does this mean for everyday buyers? Institutions appear to be accumulating, signaling disciplined entry over panic selling
pressure for pro- crypto legislation intensifies, putting the token back in focus for traders watching a potential breakout.
XRP Rally Gains Momentum as Political Spotlight Returns to Crypto Regulation
At 11:33 on March 4, XRP is trading at $1.452, extending a sharp intraday advance that has lifted the token toward the upper end of its recent range. Over the past 24 hours, XRP has gained about 5.69%, with price moving between a low of $1.345 and a high of $1.473. The latest move follows a period where price stabilized in the mid-$1.30 area before accelerating higher toward the mid-$1.40s.
From a short-term chart perspective, XRP’s structure shows a transition from consolidation into expansion. Earlier trading activity was concentrated between roughly $1.34 and $1.39, where price repeatedly tested support and remained within a narrow band. The latest upward move pushed XRP above nearby resistance in the high-$1.30 range and carried price toward the mid-$1.40 region. XRP is now approaching the upper boundary of the Bollinger Bands near $1.495, indicating expanding volatility following the earlier period of compression. Volume increased during the move higher, reinforcing the shift from range-bound trading to stronger upward momentum.
XRP 1-hour price chart on March 4 via Bitstamp.
The rally coincides with renewed political attention on cryptocurrency regulation after President Donald Trump criticized banks for threatening the Genius Act and urged lawmakers to advance broader crypto market structure legislation. Posting on Truth Social, Trump argued banks are earning record profits while trying to slow policies aimed at expanding the digital asset sector, warning that delays in passing reforms such as the Clarity Act could push innovation and investment to competing jurisdictions like China. Trump described the Genius Act as an initial step toward making the United States the “ crypto capital of the world,” while the Clarity Act would provide regulatory certainty for the industry.
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse highlighted Trump’s message, calling it a pointed signal to policymakers who have delayed progress on the Clarity framework and stressing that clearer rules are essential for the long-term growth of the U.S. digital asset sector.
XRP Surges as Trump Pushes Crypto Reform, Ripple CEO Welcomes Move
Technical indicators provide additional insight into XRP’s current positioning. The Relative Strength Index ( RSI) is around 50.96, indicating neutral momentum that has begun to tilt upward as the rally develops. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence ( MACD) shows the MACD line near 0.01087 and the signal line around 0.01283, leaving the histogram slightly negative near -0.00196 but improving as momentum strengthens. From a Moving Average (MA) perspective, XRP is trading above the 50-period exponential moving average near $1.35770 and the 200-period simple moving average around $1.38812, creating a supportive technical base beneath the current price. Bollinger Bands show the upper band near $1.49503 and the lower band around $1.32057, with price pressing toward the upper boundary as volatility expands.
If XRP can maintain its position above the cluster of moving averages near $1.36–$1.39, the bullish structure may remain intact and allow buyers to challenge the recent high near $1.47 and potentially approach the upper Bollinger Band around $1.49. A failure to hold those levels could trigger a pullback toward the prior consolidation area in the high-$1.30s, where the moving averages and former resistance zone may now act as support if momentum cools.
FAQ 🧭
Why is XRP rising sharply today?
XRP is climbing amid stronger trading volume and renewed political attention on U.S. crypto regulation that could improve industry clarity.
What technical signals are supporting XRP’s current rally?
XRP is trading above key moving averages with expanding Bollinger Bands and improving momentum indicators signaling strengthening bullish pressure.
How could U.S. crypto policy discussions affect XRP and the broader market?
Clearer regulation such as the Clarity Act could attract investment and innovation to the U.S. digital asset sector.
What price levels are investors watching for XRP next?
Traders are monitoring resistance near the recent high and upper volatility band while support sits around the moving-average zone in the upper $1.30s.
Trump is pushing an aggressive pro- crypto agenda, pressing Congress to fast-track market structure legislation and warning banks not to derail stablecoin policy as the United States races to secure leadership in the rapidly expanding digital asset economy.
Trump Pushes Congress to Finalize Clarity Act as He Warns Banks Against Blocking Crypto Progress
U.S. President Donald Trump backed the expansion of the U.S. crypto industry in a post shared on social media platform Truth Social on March 3, urging lawmakers to advance the Clarity Act and broader market structure legislation while warning banks against undermining the Genius Act. Trump wrote on Truth Social:
“The Genius Act is being threatened and undermined by the banks, and that is unacceptable — We are not going to allow it. The U.S. needs to get Market Structure done, ASAP. Americans should earn more money on their money.”
He continued: “The banks are hitting record profits, and we are not going to allow them to undermine our powerful crypto agenda that will end up going to China, and other countries if we don’t get The Clarity Act taken care of.”
The comments arrive as U.S. policymakers continue building the federal regulatory framework for digital assets. The Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act (Genius Act) became law on July 18, 2025, establishing the first nationwide framework for payment stablecoins pegged to the U.S. dollar. The legislation requires issuers to back tokens with high-quality liquid assets such as cash or short-term Treasuries, undergo monthly audits, and obtain federal or state licenses as regulators implement the law.
Attention has now shifted to the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, which aims to define whether digital assets fall under the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The measure passed the House in July but has stalled in the Senate during early 2026 amid industry disagreements, banking sector lobbying, and jurisdictional disputes between Senate committees.
Momentum weakened on Jan. 14 when Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong withdrew support for the Senate draft one day before a scheduled committee markup. Armstrong cited several concerns, including provisions that could effectively block tokenized equities trading on blockchain platforms, restrictions affecting decentralized finance data access, and language that could expand the SEC’s authority rather than reinforcing the CFTC’s role.
Trump framed the push to pass the legislation as a pivotal step for strengthening the country’s digital asset sector, writing:
“The Genius Act was the U.S.A.’s first big step to make the United States the crypto capital of the world, and getting The Clarity Act done is the next step to finish the job and, most importantly, keep this big and powerful Industry in our country.”
Large financial institutions and the American Bankers Association have pushed for strict limits preventing stablecoin issuers from offering interest or rewards to users. Banks argue that higher-yield digital dollars could pull deposits away from traditional savings accounts.
“The banks should not be trying to undercut The Genius Act, or hold The Clarity Act hostage,” Trump stressed. “They need to make a good deal with the crypto industry because that’s what’s in best interest of the American people.” The U.S. president concluded:
“This industry cannot be taken from the people of America when it is so close to becoming truly successful. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”