Trump faces challenges as Iran resists negotiations after military escalation and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's killing.
United States President Donald Trump enjoys being seen as unpredictable. But when it comes to the military campaign against Iran, his shifting messaging on the length and aims of the conflict obscures the failure to achieve his apparent goal: a quick conclusion that he can declare a victory.
Despite the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Saturday – the kind of brazen act that has become a Trump trademark – and the heavy bombing of Iran, the Islamic Republic’s leaders have publicly rejected the prospect of any immediate return to the negotiating table.
Instead, Iran is testing the will of its Gulf Arab neighbours with repeated attacks not just on US assets, but on civilian areas, and a threat to strike any ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
The Iranians’ message is clear: that they have the ability to fight back, and believe that they must impose some kind of deterrence before any talks to stop the fighting, whenever that may be.
And so, with an Iranian state prepared for a protracted fight, Trump is in the kind of scenario he has typically avoided in his two terms as president. That perhaps explains why he has been so inconsistent in his messaging.
Trump has said that the war could end in a few days, but has also given a timeline of up to five weeks, or even longer. He has framed the fight as one for the freedom of the Iranian people and in support of the country’s opposition, but also made clear that he is happy to make a deal with elements of the current state if they are willing to abide by his conditions.