KARACHI: The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Governor Jameel Ahmed on Monday presented an upbeat outlook for the economy, revising the GDP growth forecast upward ranging 3.75-4.75 percent for FY26, and indicated that SBP’s foreign exchange reserves are expected to reach an all-time high of USD 20.2 billion by the end of December 2026.

Addressing a press conference followed the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), he informed that real GDP grew by 3.7 percent y/y in Q1 of FY26 as compared to 1.6 percent in the corresponding period last year (FY25), indicating a notable pickup in economic activity, mainly led by the industry and agriculture sectors.

Moreover, recent outturns of high frequency indicators (HFIs) suggest that this momentum continued in the second quarter of the current fiscal year.


Auto sales, domestic cement dispatches, POL sales (excluding furnace oil), fertilizer off-take, and imports of machinery and intermediate goods recorded a notable growth, suggesting sustained domestic demand.

Consistent with these trends, LSM posted a growth of 8 percent y/y and 10.4 percent y/y in October and November 2025, respectively, raising cumulative LSM growth to 6 percent during July-November FY26, he added.

Meanwhile, in the agriculture sector, latest information on sowing and satellite imagery points towards encouraging prospects for the wheat, cotton and maize crop. These favourable developments in the commodity-producing sectors are expected to provide further impetus to the services sector.