$BTC │Market Overview
Following up on my previous post, price rejected cleanly back into the range after filling the 96–98K imbalance. The subsequent weekly candle opened and sold off directly from the 2025 yearly open, signaling clear acceptance into the lower section of the range.
Currently, we’re seeing a bounce off the 2026 yearly open (I shared my hedge long entry in Discord). Overall, price remains sandwiched between two key POIs.
My next high confluence timing windows for meaningful volatility are March and the start of Q2. We’ve now been ranging for roughly 60 days, and historically these ranges tend to last 2–3 months, which suggests we may still have another month of consolidation before a decisive break occurs.
My current view is that external highs have already been swept, and price is now primarily pushing higher to take out late shorts. As long as we remain below the prior S/R zone at 93.6–94.5K, the range remains bearish. If bearish structure continues on the LTF, 86–85K becomes a high-probability downside target.
Overall, based on my timing model, BTC should determine its next trend direction within 25–35 days or less. I highly doubt an upside breakout unless we see a strong and sustained reclaim of key levels, which, given the sharp 10K sell-off from supply, doesn’t make much sense to me. That type of reaction is not something I’d expect larger players to view as a strong long signal.
We may still see a few exit or relief pumps, but structurally, this remains the framework I’m operating within.
🚨 THIS IS ABSOLUTELY INSANE…
I’ve been crunching the numbers from the last 2 trading sessions, and it’s unreal.
Market Loss Since Yesterday: ~$1.4 TRILLION
Estimated Cost of Greenland: ~$700 BILLION
Read that again.
The market wiped out 2x the total value of the asset we’re trying to buy.
We literally burned $2.00 of existing wealth for every $1.00 of theoretical value we want to acquire.
Here is the technical breakdown of the absurdity:
This is a forced, correlation-one liquidation across the board.
S&P 500: -2.1%
Nasdaq: -2.4%
VIX: Spiked +31% (Vertical)
When the "Fear Gauge" crosses 20 that fast, algorithms don't think. THEY DUMP HARD.
The market isn't scared of buying an island.
It's scared of the 25% Tariffs threatened on our biggest NATO allies (Germany, France, Denmark) to FORCE the sale.
Investors priced in a full-blown trade war starting Feb 1st, in just 9 days.
Disrupting EU supply chains creates inflationary pressure that wipes out margins far faster than Greenland adds GDP.
We incinerated $1.4 trillion in shareholder value in 6.5 hours…
AND WE STILL DON’T OWN THE ISLAND.
This is negative-sum geopolitics, we are the only losers here.
LOOK AT THIS:
While Tech and Nvidia are bleeding...
– Gold hit an ATH >$4,900.
– Silver jumped +6%.
Smart money is running for cover while the average investor panic over a real estate deal.
If the market doesn’t fully recover soon, this won’t have been a smart purchase.
Watch the VIX, because if it stays above 20, the liquidation is far from being over.
$BTC
In AI infrastructure, the April 2026 Musk trial forces recognition by creating headline risk, discovery disclosure, and potential governance restructuring that no investor can ignore.
Current pricing reflects consensus that OpenAI maintains dominance.
The mechanism says otherwise.
The gap between price and mechanism is the opportunity.
This framework will apply to the next technology transition, and the one after that.
The specific entities will change. The margin stack will take different form.
The “circular financing” will connect different names.
But the structure will recur because it reflects something permanent about how capital flows to apparent winners, how apparent winners become structurally vulnerable to vertical competitors, and how consensus ignores mechanisms until catalysts force recognition.
The margin structure inversion in AI infrastructure is the largest such opportunity since cloud computing’s emergence required repricing of enterprise software.
Those who positioned for that repricing, who understood that Salesforce’s subscription model structurally disadvantaged Oracle’s license model, captured generational returns.
The same structural logic applies today.
OpenAI is Oracle: the incumbent whose cost structure made sense in the previous regime.
Google is Salesforce: the insurgent whose structural advantage will not be visible in benchmark comparisons but will be decisive in margin competition.
The timeline is compressed.
The catalyst is dated.
The positioning data shows who is wrong.
The trade is available to those who see what consensus cannot.
$BTC