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$BTC The infamous 14th is approaching. Over the last 7 months, this pivot has produced an average 8% drop afterwards. If price is pushing up into it, I’ll be hunting shorts. If we’re already dumping into the pivot, I’ll observe.

The infamous 14th is approaching what's next for BTC

That’s exactly the right question. “Trade the trend” only works once you define when not to trade . Trend isn’t a slogan, it’s a process: formation, expansion, exhaustion, transition. SLs and targets come from identifying which phase you’re in , not from the word “trend” itself

Agreed. Liquidity maps, SMC, imbalance aren’t laws, they decay as regimes and participants change. Their edge compresses fast. Trend structure lasts longer because it’s abstract. Flow tools are contextual. That’s why I use them as lenses, not doctrine

.If trend were sufficient on its own, drawdowns wouldn’t cluster exactly at regime changes. History including 200-year price series shows the same pattern: trend works between transitions, not through them.Trend isn’t wrong. Using it without context is

Trend always exists after the fact .The problem is that during transitions what you call “the trend” is undefined in real time.Ranges distribution accumulation false continuations all of these are periods where trend-following loses money before structure resolves

Trend always exists in hindsight . The real challenge is identifying when it’s transitioning. That’s where most losses occur

Yes correlation, not causation. That’s exactly why pure HH/LL trading underperforms

Correct. Most novices mistake outcomes for causes. Structure is interaction, not prints

Predefined zones are useful. What matters is confirmation . Many zones exist few activate. Context selects them

Extrema describe trend after it exists. Trend forms from acceptance and continuation, not counting highs/lows

That’s a valid abstraction. But markets aren’t static geometry; they’re adaptive systems. Same structure behaves differently under different capital stress

Structure explains where reactions occur. It doesn’t explain velocity , failure , or false continuation . That’s where flow and liquidity enter

Agreed. Reaction zones matter. But the strength of the reaction depends on positioning, leverage, and imbalance at that zone, not structure alone

Liquidity isn’t a checklist. Price moves when marginal pressure flips, not when every stop is cleared. Unused liquidity simply wasn’t dominant in that regime

Data from multiple major exchanges show abnormal price fluctuations in $BTC and $ETH between 00:05 and 00:17 today, with peak-to-trough moves of approximately 1%–5%. The market speculates that the move may be related to irregular grid-trading activity by some market makers.

Trade the trend” works until it doesn’t. Without understanding why the trend exists, you’re just reacting, not anticipating. Consistency comes from context, not slogans

Trend is the result , not the cause. Liquidity, positioning, and leverage are what shape it. Ignoring those doesn’t make reversals disappear, it just means you explain them after the fact

A weaker dollar would change capital flows, but markets don’t wait for regimes to end. They move on expectations of that shift. By the time “sovereignty is lost,” prices have already repriced. Timing matters more than ideology

We also have an additional pivot on the 11th. Over the past 11 months, 7 of these pivots led to a drop of more than 8% within the following 2 weeks. The remaining 4 resulted in continuation to the upside. However, those upside continuations only occurred after a major sell off or when market structure was clearly bearish heading into the pivot. That’s why how $BTC approaches this level matters. Whether we see a pump or a dump into the area will be key in determining the higher probability scenario.

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Mockery aside, dismissing everything as conspiracy is as unhelpful as believing all of them. Serious market analysis sits between hysteria and denial

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Trend structure is the result of liquidity, leverage, and sentiment interacting. Ignoring the drivers behind structure doesn’t make analysis purer, just incomplete

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💫💖🌹 Bonjour, votre espace de discussion bienveillant

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