🛢 Oil Volatility After Surge Above $100 During Iran War

Oil markets saw extreme volatility after crude briefly surged above $100 per barrel during the Iran conflict.

• Geopolitical tensions pushed Brent crude close to $115–$120 as traders priced in supply disruption risks.

• The biggest concern was the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 20% of global oil supply moves daily.

• War risk premiums added $5–$10 per barrel within days.

However, prices reversed quickly when de-escalation signals appeared.

• Oil dropped back toward the $90–$95 range as fears of long-term supply disruption eased.

• Traders began removing the “war premium” from energy markets.

• Volatility remains high as every geopolitical update shifts expectations.

Market Impact

Energy stocks surged during the spike.

Inflation fears briefly increased.

Safe-haven demand boosted the US Dollar Index and gold during peak tensions.

Key takeaway:

Oil’s move above $100 was driven mainly by geopolitical risk rather than supply fundamentals, which is why the rally reversed quickly once tensions cooled.

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