NOW.
Just now, US CPI and Core CPI data got released.
CPI came in at 2.4% vs. 2.5% expected, while Core CPI came in at 2.5% vs. 2.5% expected.
The US CPI is now at its lowest level since April 2025, right before when tariffs were imposed.
Core CPI is at its lowest level in almost 5 years, when the entire US economy was in lockdown.This means, despite the Fed's claims of inflation heating up, it's trending lower.
Meanwhile, the other aspect of the US economy is breaking.
The labor market is getting worse.
Credit card delinquencies are rising.
Corporate bankruptcies are hitting 2008 crisis levels.
This is a clear sign that the Fed has committed a huge policy mistake.The Fed has been hawkish for longer than expected, which is harming the US economy.
In 2020-21, they remained dovish longer than expected, which caused inflation to spike.
This time, the real risk is deflation, which is far worse than inflation.
With each passing day, it feels like Trump's comments around "Too Late Powell" are true.
