🔁 What is the four-year cycle of the crypto market?
The core is summed up in one sentence:
Bitcoin halves every 4 years, which affects the bull and bear cycles of the entire crypto market.
💡 New coin supply decreases
Miner selling pressure declines
⛓️ Market expectations change
→ Prices are likely to experience a "whole cycle of market movement"
📈 Classic four-phase rhythm
① Bear market bottoming phase
⚙️ Market is quiet, trading volume is low
⚙️ Newcomers exit, veterans quietly position
⚙️ Media attention significantly decreases
👉 Long-term positioning phase
⸻
② Halving occurs (supply shrinks)
⚙️ Stories start to be told
⚙️ Prices do not necessarily surge immediately
⚙️ Sentiment shifts from "doubt" to "expectation"
👉 The market begins to warm up
⸻
③ Bull market main rising phase (6 to 18 months after halving)
⚙️ BTC rises first → Funds spill over to altcoins
⚙️ Memes, AI, DeFi, GameFi take turns to surge
⚙️ FOMO begins to explode
👉 The most profitable time and also the easiest time to be greedy
⸻
④ Bubble + Crash (End of bull market)
⚙️ Everyone thinks "this time is different"
⚙️ Newcomers enter crazily, veterans start to withdraw
⚙️ Good news is fully priced in → Crash into bear market
👉 Emotional peak, highest risk
🐻 Bear Market: Survive
🐮 Bull Market: Make money
🧊 Bubble Period: Secure profits
📈 Common rhythm after halving (sense of time)
⚡️ 0 to 6 months after halving: Consolidation, washing out, doubt phase
⚡️ 6 to 18 months after halving: Main rising phase most likely to appear
⚡️ End of main rising phase: Emotional peak, many newcomers entering
⚡️ Subsequently enters: Correction + Bear market adjustment phase
⸻
⚠️ Variables in this cycle
ETF + Institutional funds + Macro liquidity
Cycle may advance / delay / lengthen
Will not follow the textbook, but "halving affects the trend" still holds