🔥Bitcoin's Cyclical Test: Has 2026 Entered a Bear Market, or Is It the Eve of a Bull Market?
📉 From the peak of $126K in October 2025, it has plummeted over 50%, now ranging between $60K-$65K—does this historical-level retracement signify a recurrence of cyclical patterns, or is this time truly different?
🔍 Cycle Review:
✅ 2024 Halving → 2025 Bull Market Peak → 2026 Deep Adjustment, completely aligns with the 4-year cyclical script
✅ Historical bear markets often see declines exceeding 75%, currently only 50%, adjustments may not be over
✅ RSI has dropped to 17, reaching historical extremes, with strong oversold signals
⚠️ Points of Contention:
❓ The rise of the “End of Cycle Theory”: Do ETFs and institutional entries smooth out volatility?
❓ Ongoing macro pressure (high interest rates + tightening liquidity)
❓ However, the logic of halving scarcity remains unchanged; before the next halving in 2028, bottoms often appear in the second year (late 2026-2027)
📈 Outlook:
⏳ Short-term (first half of 2026): May continue to dip to $38K-$50K, completing the washout
🌅 Mid-term (second half of 2026-2027): Oversold + cyclical support, a rebound is expected
🪙 Long-term: The narrative of digital gold strengthens, each significant drop presents a golden opportunity
💎 Conclusion:
HODL, don’t panic. The cycle is not dead; spring must follow the winter.
Will you choose to buy the dip or continue to wait?
👇 Share your strategies and psychological price levels in the comments!
