Oh, today Liangxi has gone crazy again, directly shouting that ETH will drop below 1000, specifically targeting Yili Hua's huge position of 460,000 ETH.
My first reaction was: Wow, that's harsh? My second reaction was: Dude, why don't you burn some money first?
I went through the data myself (Arkham + popular posts, February 5th evening latest), Yili Hua looks scary right now, but I think the probability of a short-term liquidation is not high, reaching 1000 seems more like Liangxi's dream lover plot at the 'sacrificial boss' level.
Let's talk about the current situation, wrapping it up in a few sentences:
Holding 463,000 ETH, worth approximately 1 billion dollars, average cost 3180, now ETH is fluctuating between 2300-2400, with a floating loss of 470 million dollars (I feel the pain just looking at it).
Aave borrowed 625 million USDT, with the liquidation price mainly around 1640 (between 1576-1682).
But he hasn't been idle recently: within a few days he sold off 188,500 ETH (average price 2263), sold for 426 million dollars, repaid 385 million USDT, significantly reduced leverage, and pulled the liquidation line from above 1900 to around 1640.
He stubbornly said: “ETH > 1000 position is safe, I can repay at any time, and I won't easily blow up.” This sounds like he's giving himself a pep talk, but it also shows he has backup funds and won't foolishly wait to die.
Liangxi's harsh words sound exciting, and the logic is simple and brutal: crash to 1000, directly blow up his leverage, create panic, and force the market lower.
But personally, I think this is mostly just hot air for three reasons:
1. How much money does it take to crash to 1000?
From 2300 to 1000, it needs to drop by 55%+, and a continuous massive short position will kill liquidity. Yi Lihua has a large volume, but he can't bear the entire market alone. If it really crashes, the shorts have to bleed first; Liangxi is probably just enjoying himself verbally and wouldn't dare to go all in.
2. Yi Lihua is already running away (self-rescue version)
He didn't stubbornly hold on but actively cut positions to repay debts. The leverage has decreased, and the liquidation line has been lowered. When it gets close to 1640, he will likely continue to sell or add margin and won't just watch himself get liquidated. Liquidation requires a price crash + he doesn't add positions, which is a double whammy. As it stands, his mentality seems relatively stable.
3. The market doesn't want to die that much right now.
ETH is still grinding in the 2000-2500 range in the short term, with no macro explosions and institutions not collectively selling off. Liangxi's poison milk sounds stimulating, but if the market doesn't buy it, it won't move. Instead, it could lead to a wave of FUD followed by bulls bottom fishing and a counterattack on the shorts.
I drew a rough candlestick chart for you (take a screenshot of the ETH 4H chart and add a few handwritten notes):
- The current candle is fluctuating around 2350 (mixed red and green, long lower shadow, like a tug-of-war).
- The red horizontal line is drawn at 1576-1682 (write “Yi Lihua's life and death line, core at 1640”)
- The green small arrow marks the small rebound on February 4-5 (write “Breathe after FUD, Liangxi don't rush”)
- The yellow dashed line points down to 1000 (with a comment next to it: “Liangxi: Come on, let's hurt each other! Boss Yi: You spend money first, I'll add positions first?” with a dog emoji).
- Small text at the bottom: I bet on holding 2000 in the short term, 30% probability of crashing to 1640, to 1000? Even 20% seems too much. But if it really crashes... Boss Yi will probably cry and post “Liangxi, you bastard” haha.
In short, my bet: the probability of a short-term liquidation is low (he has room to save himself), and an extreme sacrifice to 1000 seems more like Liangxi's fantasy. ETH will likely continue to grind within the box; brothers betting on direction, don't go all in on emotions, it's easy to get hit from both sides.#易理华 #币安广场 #ETH #凉席狠话
