According to CryptoQuant, the current bear market is developing faster than the beginning of the bear market in 2022. Since BTC fell below the 365-day average in November 2025, the decline is expected to be significantly deeper in a comparable time frame.
Faster decline, extreme fear, and a possible "panic bounce"
Analysts indicate an acceleration of worsening momentum and the loss of important technical levels. Additionally, there is a fading of leverage and weaker spot demand — which often results in a mix of "crypto winter" in the short term.
On the other hand, the market is entering areas that have historically been close to local lows: retail sentiment is extremely negative, and the fear and greed index is falling to levels associated with panic. This does not guarantee a rebound, but increases the chance of technical 'reliefs' after too strong a move.
Difference compared to 2022? The foundations of the industry are stronger today (more mature infrastructure, greater presence of institutions), but the short-term direction will still depend on liquidity, Fed policy, and macro/geopolitical risks.
