Bitcoin has recently fluctuated dramatically. Some people are worried due to the volatility, while others feel that opportunities are brewing. Whose judgment is more accurate? Is it a trend reversal or a phase adjustment? The situation is straightforward and realistic. Bitcoin has fluctuated down from its recent highs, and currently, the market is increasingly divided on its trajectory. According to the usual observational dimensions of the market, its recent fluctuation range and capital movements are under close scrutiny.
Here comes the question: who is leading the market? Is it small retail investors? No, it is more about institutions and large capital. Recently, the capital flow of financial products related to Bitcoin has been frequent, and some institutions' rebalancing actions have triggered market fluctuations. Why do institutions operate this way? One of the key factors is the macro environment, such as the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The market's expectations regarding interest rate changes constantly influence the allocation of capital to risky assets like cryptocurrencies. Once liquidity expectations tighten, Bitcoin's fluctuations are often amplified.
Among them, the movements of some large holding entities are particularly noteworthy, such as the positions and liabilities of a certain giant company. If the value of its holding assets is unbalanced with the pressure of liabilities, it may trigger a chain reaction. If the market continues to develop in an unfavorable direction, the likelihood of forced adjustments to positions will increase, and such large-scale capital movements may trigger the market's "butterfly effect."
What will the market do next? Some people are bearish to a certain low point, while others believe that institutions are more focused on its long-term value and whether the current valuation is attractive. The market's panic or optimism often appears at the bottom or top; the question is not whether the market will fluctuate, but how well you can endure and respond to such fluctuations. So recently, three key things can be focused on:
• First, the Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy statement, whether it will reinforce or change the market's expectations for interest rates.
• Second, the capital movements of institutions near key price levels, whether they will rebuild positions or adjust their portfolios.
• Third, the asset-liability situation of large holding entities, whether there will be substantial position adjustments.$BTC
