Oh my, the square has exploded again today—Liang Xi directly opened the mic: ETH is highly likely to drop below 1000, targeting the 460,000 ETH giant position of Yi Li Hua!
I looked at it and thought: Wow, that's so toxic? But then I thought about it again and found it a bit interesting, also a bit outrageous. Come on, let's skip those official analyses and just share my own little views (pure personal brain dump + emotional output, if I lose, don't @ me).
First, let’s talk about what Yi Li Hua looks like now (I flipped through the on-chain data myself, latest on the evening of February 5):
- Trend Research still holds 463,000 ETH, worth about 1 billion dollars.
- Average cost 3180 USD, now ETH is fluctuating around 2300-2400, with an unrealized loss of 470 million USD (heartache for three seconds).
- The most exciting: Multiple lending positions on Aave, with liquidation prices mainly in the 1576-1682 USD range.
- He himself is quite tough: publicly stating “As long as ETH > 1000, the position is safe, ready to repay debts at any time, will not be easily liquidated.”
Liang Xi's logic sounds harsh: smashing below 1000 directly blows up Yi Lihua's leverage, creating panic + sacrificing big players, forcing the market lower. But personally, I think the chances of this happening are low for three reasons: can't smash, can't move, not worth smashing.
1. Can't smash: from 2300 to 1000, requires continuous massive short positions + liquidity to be completely dried up. Yi Lihua's scale is significant, but not at the level of Cai Wensheng in 2022. If this were to happen, how much would Liang Xi or the operator have to burn? Just the gas fees could make you vomit blood.
2. Yi Lihua is not stubborn: he is already reducing positions! In the past few days, he transferred 188,500 ETH to Binance to sell off debts, leverage has decreased, and the liquidation line has been pulled from over 1900 to around 1600. His mindset is still stable: “Looking bullish too early is wrong.” When it comes to a life-and-death moment, he is likely to add margin or continue cutting, and won't stupidly stand by waiting for a blow-up.
3. The market is not that desperate: ETH is still oscillating in the 2000-2500 box in the short term, macro (Federal Reserve, yen, US stocks) hasn’t changed much, and institutions haven’t collectively smashed. Liang Xi's words this time are toxic but executing it will also make the bears bleed.
- Current price candle: about 2350 USD (alternating red and green, long lower shadow, representing a tug-of-war between bulls and bears)
- Red horizontal warning line: 1576-1682 (marked “Yi Lihua’s liquidation dense area, heart racing zone”)
- Green rebound arrow: February 4th, He Yi responded then pulled back a bit (writing “small rebound, FUD not that harsh”)
- Yellow dashed downward arrow: Liang Xi's harsh words target 1000 (next to handwritten comment: “Liang Xi: Come on, let’s hurt each other! (dog head)”)
- Bottom small text: I bet ETH will hold 2000 in the short term, smash to 1000? 20% probability. But if it really smashes... Boss Yi will probably cry out “Help me, Liang Xi, you bastard” hahaha
In one sentence: Liang Xi's harsh words sound thrilling, but I don't think the probability of smashing to 1000 and blowing up Yi Lihua is more than two-tenths—costs are too high, Boss Yi has a backup, and the market hasn't reached that collapse stage. In the short term, ETH is likely to continue grinding in the box, brothers betting on direction should take it easy, don’t go all in emotionally.
