I. How much lower can it go? Look at several key price points (technical focus)
Combined with daily structure:
① What has happened
97k → 65k：
👉 Complete daily level breakdown + accelerated declineMA(7/25/99) all lost, moving averages bear divergence
Increased volume long shadow, indicating:
It's not retail panic, it's systematic deleveraging② Next, focus on the observation range (not a prediction, but a probability zone)
I give you 3 tiers, to help you judge the emotional phase yourself
🟡 First support (short-term rebound area)
62,000 – 64,000
Logic: previous dense transaction area + psychological round number
There might be a technical rebound here, but it doesn't mean the bottom is in
🟠 Second support (if rebound fails)
58,000 – 60,000
Daily structure is relatively 'clean' range
Large contract liquidations, ETF sentiment further cooling, will hit here
🔴 Extreme panic (only systemic sell-off brings it)
52,000 – 55,000
Needs to meet:
US stocks continue to fall sharply
ETF continuous net outflow
On-chain 'forced selling events' occur
Conclusion in one sentence:
65k is not strong support, more like 'a continuation in decline'
II. Are there any 'real hammer-level negatives / explosions'?
❌ There is nothing like FTX, LUNA's 'one blow to death'
But there are 4 overlapping negatives (more dangerous)
1️⃣ ETF fund logic reversal (this is the core)
Previous rise = ETF continuous net inflow
Recently it is:
Inflow slows down
Some days show net outflow
Hedge fund logic is:
ETF doesn't pick up → Futures get smashed first → Spot sells passively
👉 This is not sentiment, it's a fund model switch
2️⃣ Contract leverage is too full
High position:
Bull financing rates have been positive for a long time
Retail investors are unanimously bullish
After the decline:
Chain explosions
Triggering more market sell orders
👉 It's not that many people are selling, but that many are being 'forced to sell'
3️⃣ US stocks & risk assets weaken together
BTC is now highly correlated with the Nasdaq
The logic is:
High interest rate period is extended
Risk assets are unified for valuation
👉 BTC hasn't reached the 'independent market' stage
4️⃣ Psychological negative:
'100k is stable' consensus has been shattered
What the market fears most is not bad news
Is:
What was originally the most certain thing has suddenly become uncertain
III. The 3 most common mistakes to make now
⚠️ Let me get straight to the point:
Going all in to bottom out in a downward trend
Betting on contracts that 'a rebound is a reversal'
Watching small levels every day, emotions are led by candlesticks
IV. If you ask me 'What is smart money doing'
❌ Not all in
❌ Not immediately going long
✅ Is:
Wait for increased panic
Wait for daily stop-loss structure
Wait for ETF flow to stabilize
An old saying but very true:
A bull market doesn't die from bad news, but from leverage.
