Determining Bitcoin's Bottom Fishing Timing through the VIX

The VIX is the U.S. fear index, which can be seen in TradingView as free data. It has been my long-term strategy for bottom fishing. Through backtesting data, I found this method to be quite effective, especially when market sentiment is extremely poor.

I personally divide the bottom fishing of the VIX into several stages:

1⃣. When the VIX is at 20, it is generally in a normal fluctuation.

2⃣. When the VIX is at 25, it has already entered the initial stage of panic. This may not be the best time for bottom fishing, but it can be used for observation, especially for assets that have declined significantly.

3⃣. VIX > 25 Relative to this, occurrences are not frequent, and these times are often driven by events, such as the two instances in October and November 2025, one being a shutdown and the other tariffs; events often rebound once they conclude. This stage can be seen as a situation to start building positions.

4⃣. VIX > 30 Such situations do not occur frequently and are often associated with more extreme events, where the market's intimidation effect becomes more evident. This time is usually when the success rate for buying is relatively high.

5⃣. VIX > 40 The market has begun to spread bearish sentiments, and when this situation occurs, it is possible to increase investments. All my backtesting data shows that the stability of investing in $BTC in this range is very good, but situations exceeding 40 are still quite rare.

6⃣. VIX > 50 A very rare occurrence, the last time it appeared was in April 2025, when the U.S. was making adjustments, especially related to the tariff war with China. Historical backtesting data shows that when VIX exceeds 50, a significant upward trend often occurs within a short timeframe.

The current VIX is 22.56, which belongs to the observation zone. The question of whether to buy or not is not significant in this range, and one can decide based on their own situation. However, exceeding 25 or 30 is indeed a more prudent timing, but occurrences exceeding 30 in the past two to three years have not been frequent.