🔥 Warsh's Fed Outlook: Interest Rate Cuts, Balance Sheet Reduction, and Impact on Crypto
On January 30, Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to take over as Fed Chair. I've been monitoring this for a week, and I'll discuss it with you in light of the market and policy logic 👇
🔎 Core Judgments (February 5, 2026)
🔥 Policy Tone: The market misreads 'hawkish', Warsh wants to cut rates first, then talk about balance sheet reduction; Goldman Sachs/rate futures price in 2 rate cuts this year, hawkish views see 4-5 cuts, with a <40% chance of cuts in March-April and >80% in June. 👑👑👑#沃什美联储政策前瞻
🔥 Balance Sheet Reduction Stance: Advocates for balance sheet reduction to go with 'Fed put options', but it’s unlikely to restart QT in the short term; more likely a moderate balance sheet reduction in line with rate cut pace.
🔥 Market Impact: After the nomination, US stocks/gold saw a short-term pullback; in the long term, rate cut expectations raise the outlook for risk assets, and a weaker dollar may provide liquidity support for BTC/crypto markets.
Senate Uncertainties: The Democrats may obstruct, and there is still uncertainty in the nomination approval process.#摩根大通看好BTC
💡 My Trading Thoughts
📢 Crypto Side: Accumulate BTC/ETH in batches at lower prices, focusing on entry points with corrections over 0.3%, with stop-loss based on key support levels (BTC 41000, ETH 2700).
Risk Control: Current macro expectations are highly volatile; control positions to 30-50%, avoid chasing highs, and gradually increase positions when signals of a rate cut appear in June.
Risk Warning: If policy implementation falls short of expectations, it may trigger severe market volatility, be sure to set stop-losses!
Do you think BTC can return to 45000 after Warsh takes office? Let's discuss in the comments!
#美联储 #沃什 #RateCutExpectations #BTC #加密市场 $BTC
