Morgan Stanley's Core View Analysis
· Valuation Logic: Comparison with Gold after 'Volatility Adjustment'. Its analysis points out that the volatility ratio of Bitcoin to Gold has dropped to a historic low (1.5 times), and if it wants to match Gold's value on a risk-adjusted basis, Bitcoin's theoretical price has significant upside potential.
· Important Price Reference: Production Cost. The report believes that Bitcoin's current price is below its estimated average production cost of $87,000, which historically often constitutes a relative price bottom.
· Long-term Target Given: $266,000. This is a long-term theoretical potential price calculated by Morgan Stanley analysts based on a market value that matches the scale of private sector gold investment (around $8 trillion). However, it also points out that this is an unrealistic target for this year.
The background of the report and the current market situation
JPMorgan made this judgment based on a specific market context: recently, gold has significantly outperformed Bitcoin.
Since October 2025, the price of gold has increased by about one-third, while Bitcoin has fallen over 40% from its peak. This has raised doubts in the market about Bitcoin's 'digital gold' safe-haven attributes. The report also acknowledges that overall market sentiment is negative, and there has been a continuous outflow of funds from Bitcoin spot ETFs.
Risks and potential contradictions to be understood
· Internal opinions vary: There is a divergence of views within JPMorgan regarding cryptocurrencies. On one hand, their research team frequently publishes analytical reports; on the other hand, their CEO Jamie Dimon has publicly stated that he will never buy Bitcoin.
· Continuity with historical viewpoints: JPMorgan's stance will dynamically adjust with market changes. For example, when prices were high, their reports warned of risks; when market sentiment shifted, they provided target prices of $165,000 or even higher. Therefore, the report describes the current market situation heavily and should be viewed dialectically.
Dahui's summary
In simple terms, JPMorgan's viewpoint can be understood as: after experiencing a divergence where gold surged and Bitcoin declined over the past few months, the 'cost-performance ratio' between the two has changed. Analysts believe that Bitcoin's relative value is underestimated and is more attractive in the long run.
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