Key conclusion: In extreme scenarios, Bitcoin could retrace to $25,000
Cryptocurrency analyst PlanB stated on the X platform that in his view, there may be four potential bearish scenarios for this Bitcoin bear market:
1) Retracing about 80% from the previous historical high of approximately $126,000, the price corresponds to about $25,000;
2) Falling back to the 200-week moving average or the realized price range, corresponding to approximately $50,000 to $60,000;
3) Falling back to slightly above the historical high level of the last cycle, corresponding to around $70,000;
4) The market may have completed a phase bottom near approximately $72,900 yesterday.
To say something heart-wrenching, when XPL was at $1.6, people talked about 'narratives' and 'hundred times'; now that it has dropped to around $0.09, people are instead starting to talk about 'how usable it is'.
As you said, Plasma is doing the least popular but most useful thing: making blockchain not look like blockchain. When you no longer need to struggle with what Gas is or what authorization is, and it feels as effortless as using Alipay, then this chain can be considered alive.
@Plasma The price crash has actually filtered out speculators, leaving only the true 'failure cost test'.
Additionally, the daily transaction volume of the Plasma One debit card has surprisingly stabilized at the million dollar level. Why? Because for users swiping their cards there, they simply do not care whether XPL has dropped by 10% or risen by 5%, what they care about is cashback and zero-fee transfers.
#Plasma is competing for the 'first entry point'. Once users are accustomed to this seamless settlement, even if the price of XPL looks bad, the inertia of the ecosystem will push it forward.
The current crash is actually testing Plasma's settlement logic. If even at extremely low valuations, this set of 'intention routing' can still function, without downtime or loss of money, then it will have filled the most critical credit gap.
I hope it can recover, it has been very disappointing so far.
