Kevin Warsh (#沃什获提名利多还是利空 ) was formally nominated by Trump on January 30, 2026, to succeed Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May. The nomination still requires Senate confirmation, and he has not yet officially taken office. The overall impact on the stock market is predominantly short-term negative, mainly based on the immediate market reaction and analyst interpretations after the nomination announcement:

• Immediate Market Reaction: After the nomination announcement, US stocks generally fluctuated downwards or collectively declined (e.g., the Nasdaq fell by more than 1% at one point), the US dollar index strengthened, US Treasury yields rose, and gold and silver prices plummeted. This reflects investors' dominant interpretation of Warsh's policies as "hawkish," leading to pressure on risk assets.

• Reasons:

• Warsh's historical stance is hawkish: He opposed quantitative easing (QE), criticized the Fed's excessively large balance sheet (currently about $7 trillion), and advocated for significant balance sheet reduction and reduced market intervention. This could mean a more cautious monetary policy in the future, a slower pace of interest rate cuts, or even maintaining high interest rates or no rate cuts in the short term, thus compressing stock market valuations.

• Added uncertainty: The market is concerned that the Fed's independence will be weakened by Trump (Trump has publicly stated that he wants Warsh to cut rates, otherwise he "won't nominate him"). At the same time, Warsh's "rate cut + balance sheet reduction" combination is seen as "hawkish easing," which may lead to increased volatility in the short term and the removal of "Fed put" expectations.

• Some institutional views: For example, Citadel predicts that the Fed may not cut rates for a year; Huatai Securities and others believe that cutting rates first and then reducing the balance sheet may trigger an overreaction in the market.

• Medium- to long-term outlook: Not an absolute negative. Warsh recently expressed support for rate cuts to address the economic slowdown, but consensus needs to be reached within the FOMC (the chairman only has one vote). If the final rate cut path is moderate (market futures have adjusted from the original expectation of one rate cut to two), or if the Fed maintains a certain degree of independence, US stocks may see support, especially growth stocks and the real estate sector. However, if hawkish sentiment becomes more pronounced, quantitative tightening accelerates, or policy uncertainty persists, it will exert sustained pressure on the stock market. Overall, current market sentiment is dominated by caution and volatility, with a higher probability of short-term negative factors. It is recommended to pay attention to the Warsh hearings, updates to the Fed's dot plot, and economic data. ($BNB )