Brothers, what happened to the promised 1.5 trillion rescue for the market? What happened to the government shutdown crisis being resolved? Why, with such huge good news, is Bitcoin not only not rising but also breaking below 70,000 and plunging into the abyss? This is crazy; in 24 hours, the entire network experienced liquidations of 856 million USD, with long positions liquidated at 711 million, Bitcoin long positions at 356 million, Ethereum long positions at 150 million, and leveraged longs being wiped out. All those trying to buy the dip have been buried. Who the hell is controlling the market? How much longer will this decline last?
Actually, there's no need to guess; the market sentiment hasn't warmed up at all. This time, the market's sharp decline confirms what Baige said: when good news is fully priced in, it's bad news; when bad news is fully priced in, it's good news. This wave of movement had signals long ago.
First, talking about the funding aspect, ETFs are like a fair-weather friend, coming quickly and leaving even faster. On Monday, a small amount of funds flowed in, allowing Bitcoin to barely rebound. When U.S. stocks fell, the ETFs immediately flowed out, dragging Bitcoin down without any resistance. This is the current state of funding. Bai Ge repeatedly emphasizes that without capital entering the market, all rebounds are just empty talk.
Some brothers are also confused, why is there such large volatility between 70,000 and 80,000? A casual sell order can create a deep pit? There is a key signal here: this range is a chip vacuum area. In simple terms, there has been little historical trading and chip costs are not concentrated. Prices slide in this vacuum without needing volume to rise or fall sharply; this is the core reason for the volatility.
Now let's talk about how serious the consequences are when Bitcoin breaks below the true cost line.
This is the average value of the market's chips. If it cannot return, the market mentality will shift from 'daring to buy on dips' to 'running on rebounds.' Each subsequent rebound will be a pressure test; the fundamental support is not stable. Bai Ge reminds you that losing the cost line is not scary; what’s scary is the mentality collapsing first.
When the mentality collapses, the market is finished. Let's take a look at what the on-chain data has revealed.
First, the cost line for short-term holders has collectively moved down, which is not a healthy correction, but a restructuring of the market structure. Old chips are cutting losses and leaving, while new chips are taking over at low prices. The subsequent bottoming process will only be longer and more grueling.
Many brothers are asking, will MicroStrategy be forced to sell?
Bai Ge says frankly, it stands at the breakeven line of 76,000. It's normal for short-term emotions to amplify; there is no logic behind being forced to sell. With significant debt and ample cash, this is just an emotional shock, not a fundamental collapse. Don’t be swayed by the market. Brothers, remember: the market always creates panic. We need to be the clear-headed ones amid the panic; only then can you see opportunities.
Besides the funding aspect, what other pressures are preventing Bitcoin from rising? Speaking of this, we need to first analyze why the 1.5 trillion rescue cannot save the crypto market? There are three core pressures, each fatal. Bai Ge often says, 'For rising trends, look at funding; for falling trends, look at logic.' This wave is a failure of both logic and funding.
The first pressure: The benefits have dulled! It's simple; the benefits have already been priced in early. The major beautiful pause is a short-term disturbance; the market has digested it. With no new capital after the benefits materialize, it directly dulls or even turns into bearishness. This is the most crucial point. Don't wait for the benefits to materialize before chasing; Bai Ge has said that chasing highs and cutting losses is the root cause of retail losses.
The second pressure: The hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve has a huge impact on the crypto market!
Currently, hawkish expectations are at a peak, and the market is worried that the policies will tighten further due to the hawkish stance of Waller. High interest rates are inherently bearish for cryptocurrencies, and the expectations for rate cuts have been delayed, while a stronger dollar has also tightened liquidity. So Bai Ge's viewpoint is: Without a macro shift, it's hard for the crypto market to reverse.
The third pressure: How deadly is the dual failure of regulation and funding?
Regulatory benefits have been exhausted, and the progress of major beautiful crypto legislation has slowed down. The policy dividend has evaporated, and the willingness for capital to flow back is zero. Coupled with continuous outflows from ETFs and institutions taking profits, there is a funding gap, and buying pressure is weak, making Bitcoin unable to rise. Capital is the lifeblood of the crypto market; if the blood runs out, how can we talk about a rise?
The market is currently caught in a panic cycle, with liquidity completely dried up. This wave of decline has triggered a chain of liquidations, and leveraged long positions have been wiped out. In the past, there were bottom-buying funds during large declines, but this time no one dares to act. A small number of sell orders can create large bearish candles, which is the most dangerous situation. I mentioned in my previous articles that leverage is a double-edged sword; it can help you make money quickly, but it can also lead you to zero just as fast.
After discussing macro, let's talk about the core signals on the technical side.
Brothers don't need to complicate things; let's just focus on what's useful. After all, the technical aspect is auxiliary, while the funding aspect is core. Only by combining both can we avoid detours.
Bitcoin's daily chart has completely weakened, with prices below the 5, 10, and 20-day moving averages, showing a bearish arrangement. The RSI has dropped below 30, indicating overselling. The 4-hour MACD shows initial bottom divergence, with downward momentum weakening. There may be short-term overselling correction, but don’t hold high expectations.
The key strong support is around 69,000, which is both the Fibonacci 0.5 retracement level and the previous high before the last bull market. This dual support has high significance. In extreme cases, if it spikes to 63,000-67,000, as long as the real K-line does not break below 69,000, the structure is not broken. Resistance is at 79,000-80,000; it must stabilize with volume to open up rebound space; otherwise, it will just be a weak rebound.
So some brothers will ask if they can catch the bottom around 69,000?
Bai Ge believes that currently, Bitcoin shows bottom divergence across both large and small cycles. The decline is rapid, and emotions have been sufficiently released. Around 69,000 is a high-cost performance gambling area; those with positions can enter the market in batches. Remember what Bai Ge has repeatedly said: Don’t be greedy in practice; stop loss comes first.
Is there a stop-loss signal for Bitcoin now?
According to my observation, there is currently no clear stop-loss signal. Bitcoin's first downward target is 70,700, and if it breaks below that, it will head towards 69,000. It is possible that there will be consolidation or false breaks at this stage. The current position is around 71,000. You can wait for a pullback below 71,000 to test long positions; if it breaks directly, give up and look to try again at 69,000.
For Bitcoin to stop falling and rebound, it must return to the 72,900-74,100 range for consolidation; otherwise, stopping the decline will be as difficult as ascending to the heavens. If the range does not break, the consolidation will not stop.
How should Auntie operate?
Ethereum is indeed very weak, showing an M-top at the hourly level, breaking below the 2107 neckline, directly looking at 1992. Bai Ge predicts that Auntie is very likely to drop sharply this time. The operation is bearish; if Auntie breaks through 2132 with volume, go long. The best position to try going long is after a valid retest of the 2040 support; if it drops below 2000, stop loss immediately. If the market spikes to 1943, you can consider entering long, but stop loss at 1891.
Finally, a summary: The current crypto market is still in a downward trend. Bitcoin is oversold and showing bottom divergence, but there are no signs of a stop-loss; Auntie is even weaker. It's generally not advisable for ordinary traders to make blind moves. Spot and futures traders can pay attention to 69,000, which is a high-cost performance gambling area for Bitcoin.
The short-term market's main tone is to grind the bottom. A second bottom is not ruled out. As long as the core support holds, there is hope for a rebound. Finally, I want to reiterate: any bottom that can be caught is not the true bottom. The bottom is something that is squeezed out. If it doesn't rebound, then it’s not the bottom either! Respect the market and manage risk well. Endure the bottoming process and wait for the big gains at the bottom! In the crypto market, those who can make money are always the ones who can endure, see clearly, and not follow the crowd.
