PlanB presents four scenarios for the Bitcoin bear market: from a deep correction to $25,000 to a slight adjustment near $70,000.
Recently, Bitcoin analyst PlanB proposed four potential adjustment scenario analyses regarding the current development path of the crypto market bear market, providing a clear thought process for the public to assess the market adjustment magnitude.
He listed four potential bear market adjustment paths as follows:
1. Deep correction: a drop of 80% from the historical high of $126,000, targeting $25,000;
2. Drop to key moving averages: falling to the 200-week moving average or near the 'realized price', with a target range of $50,000 to $60,000;
3. Previous high support level: pulling back to find support above the previous bull market high (around $70,000);
4. Bottom formation has been completed: the low of $72,900 set on February 3 is the bottom of this bear market.
Overall, considering the current market conditions and PlanB's comprehensive assessment, it is not difficult to find that among the four bear market scenarios, the probability of a deep correction (the first scenario) is relatively low;
In contrast, the likelihood of prices dropping to key mid-term technical levels (the second scenario) or stabilizing near the previous high point (the third scenario) is more in line with the overall characteristics of tightening market liquidity and technical support.
However, despite the analysis outlining a clear potential trend path for the market, the ultimate direction still depends on multiple factors such as macroeconomic conditions, regulatory policies, and the market's own structural dynamics.
For investors, this scenario analysis can only serve as a reference for risk assessment and strategy formulation, and it is still necessary to combine real-time market dynamics to rationally assess the final adjustment depth of this bear market.
