The crypto market is adjusting. Prices are falling, sentiment is heavy, and confidence is shaky. And the familiar question arises again: Is this a new crypto winter?
To answer this question, we need to look back at how past crypto winters have formed, as well as place the current phase in the correct historical context and the changing market structure.
How do crypto winters typically begin in history?
History shows that crypto winters typically follow a very clear scenario: Major event => collapse of trust => builders leave the market.
- 2014: Mt. Gox was hacked, hundreds of thousands$BTC disappeared → trust evaporated.
- 2018: ICOs were exposed, regulatory tightening → the bubble burst lasted until 2020.
- 2022: Terra-Luna, Celsius, 3AC, FTX successively collapsed → the industry's structure was severely damaged.
Each time, not only did prices fall, but builders also left, seeking opportunities in fintech, big tech, or AI.
Familiar signs of the current phase.
On the surface, the current market has many factors reminiscent of previous downturn cycles.
- Speculative frenzies like the Trump-related memecoin saw market capitalization surge to 27 billion USD in just one day before collapsing over 90%.
- A large-scale liquidation event on 10/10, triggered by changes in U.S. tax policy, activated a record wave of liquidations on Binance.
- Within the community, discussions about 'what to build next' are gradually being replaced by arguments, blame, and skepticism.
- At the same time, the AI sector is attracting high-quality talent, promising faster growth and wealth creation than crypto.
However, upon closer analysis, the current picture is still significantly different from a true crypto winter.
Core differences compared to previous winters.
The biggest difference lies in the reasons. Previous crypto winters mainly stemmed from internal issues in the industry such as hacks, scams, exchanges collapsing, or unsustainable business models. In contrast, the current cycle is heavily influenced by external factors.
- The bull market is triggered by Bitcoin ETFs.
- The decline comes from interest rates, tax policies, and macroeconomic factors.
- More importantly, the builder community has not yet left the game. Sectors like RWA, perp DEX, prediction markets, InfoFi, or privacy continue to produce new narratives. Although not strong enough to create an explosive wave like DeFi Summer 2020, building activity is still ongoing.
Why is Bitcoin rising but altcoins aren't 'taking off'?
In the past, Bitcoin price increases often led to waves of rising altcoins. However, this mechanism is weakening. The ETF cash flowing into Bitcoin tends to stay in Bitcoin, while capital in the managed area does not easily shift to the high-risk area.
Liquidity is currently only concentrated in places where value has been clearly proven.
What conditions does the next bull run need?
For a new growth cycle to truly explode, two key factors are still missing.
- First, there needs to be a strong enough use case that creates real new value, similar to DeFi Summer 2020. Trends like AI agents, InfoFi, or social on-chain have potential but are not yet large enough to pull the entire market.
- Second, the macroeconomic environment is favorable. Global interest rates and liquidity remain the decisive variables, beyond the control of crypto.
A bull run where all assets rise sharply together as in the past may not return. The market has fragmented. A growth cycle will come, but not everyone will benefit equally. It is more important than ever to understand what layer of the market you are in and participate in the right game for that layer.
