Disclosure of Interests: The content of this article is only market analysis and technical discussion, and does not constitute any investment advice. The author does not hold any positions in the cryptocurrencies mentioned in the article and has no vested interest in the projects discussed. The cryptocurrency market is extremely risky; readers are advised to make independent judgments and decisions cautiously.
Introduction: The Strategic Shift in the ETH Ecosystem from V God Selling Coins
Recently, the ETH transfers from Vitalik Buterin (V God) have again drawn market attention. The coincidental timing is often interpreted as a short-term emotional signal, but the deeper significance lies in the major adjustments released in his tweets regarding the roadmap— the Rollup-centered expansion path is being re-evaluated. This is not a abandonment of Layer 2 (L2), but rather a pragmatic strategic recalibration: L1 returns to the expansion backbone, while L2 shifts towards differentiated innovation. This article will systematically analyze the long-term impact of this transition on the ETH ecosystem from the dimensions of technological evolution, market structure, and on-chain data.
I. Project background: Why does the L2 narrative need to be reshaped?
Ethereum's initial 'Rollup-centric' roadmap essentially aimed to shift the expansion pressure to L2, envisioning a highly standardized, interoperable, and decentralized 'sharded' L2 network. However, the actual development has deviated from the early vision:
Stage 2 progress is slow: Most L2s are still in Stage 1 (partially decentralized), relying on centralized orchestrators and multi-signature governance, with security models still holding trust assumptions.
Interoperability bottlenecks: Inefficient cross-L2 communication, fragmented liquidity, and ecosystem fragmentation have actually reduced user experience.
L1's own evolution accelerates: After the Dencun upgrade, L1 transaction fees continue to decline, and the future Gas Limit increase plan (expected in 2026) will directly enhance the mainnet's throughput capacity.
This means that L1 is reassuming the foundational expansion tasks, while L2's positioning has shifted from a 'unified expansion solution' to diversified, vertical, and experimental innovation layers.
II. Market structure and price logic: Short-term pressure and long-term value reassessment
Price trend analysis
In the short term, the roadmap adjustment may be interpreted by the market as a 'weakened L2 expectation', combined with activity from V God’s address, which may easily trigger emotional sell pressure. Key support needs to observe changes in large on-chain holdings and net inflow data from exchanges.
In the medium term, the improvement of L1's expansion capabilities will directly enhance ETH's cash flow capture ability as a 'settlement layer and data availability layer'. The rebound in Gas consumption may become an early indicator of price.
From a long-term perspective, if L1 successfully bears high-frequency foundational transactions while L2 focuses on vertical scenarios such as gaming, social, and high-frequency derivatives, the overall valuation model of the ETH ecosystem may shift from 'single currency premium' to 'composite ecosystem premium'.
Transaction logic disassembly
If you are optimistic about L1 returning to the expansion mainline: you can pay attention to ETH-denominated staking rates, Gas consumption growth, EIP-4844 adoption progress, and other indicators.
If you are optimistic about L2 differentiated competition: you need to select L2 projects with independent technology stacks, vertical scenario innovation capabilities, and clear decentralization processes to avoid homogeneous competition targets.
III. On-chain indicators and capital flows: The ecological dynamics behind the data
L1 activity: Recently, the average number of active addresses on Ethereum has remained around ~400,000, with stable NFT and DeFi activities. After the Dencun upgrade, the average Gas fee for L1 has dropped to the 5-10 Gwei range, creating conditions for low-cost ecosystem operation.
L2 capital accumulation: The total TVL of major L2s (Arbitrum, Optimism, Base, etc.) has reached nearly ~15% of the total locked ETH, but the growth slope has slowed, reflecting the market entering a consolidation period.
Institutional holding trends: Data from Coinbase Premium and CEX fund flows show that recent large ETH transfers are mostly related to staking and cross-chain to L2, rather than pure exchange sell pressure.
IV. Macroeconomic relations: ETH positioning from a traditional finance perspective
Against the backdrop of fluctuating liquidity expectations from the Federal Reserve and increasing global asset volatility, ETH's dual attributes of 'yield-generating assets' (Staking returns) and 'technical assets' are more pronounced.
If inflation rebounds and interest rate cuts are delayed, the overall cryptocurrency market will be under pressure, but the ETH staking rate (currently ~25%) still has room for growth, providing an endogenous yield buffer.
If Ethereum ETFs are approved in the future, traditional funds will have a channel to enter, and the value of L1 infrastructure will be more favored because it directly represents network security and cash flow.
V. Risk warnings
Technical execution risks: The timely delivery and secure implementation of the L1 expansion roadmap depend on protocol upgrades.
L2 competition decoupling: Some L2s may turn to independent ecosystems due to profit pressures, reducing their economic ties with ETH.
Regulatory uncertainty: The Staking and L2 compliance framework is still evolving and may affect the pace of ecosystem growth.
Conclusion: Can ETH's glory return?
This roadmap adjustment is not a retreat, but rather a strategic focus based on ecosystem maturity. Short-term pain is inevitable, but in the long run, this will encourage:
L1 becomes a scalable, secure, and low-cost settlement foundation layer;
L2 breaks free from the burden of being the 'official scaling tool' and moves towards scenario-driven differentiated competition.
The narrative of ETH is evolving from a 'world computer' to a 'layered ecological economy', and its value will depend on whether it can capture the value generated by large-scale applications through a layered architecture while maintaining decentralized security. All of this still requires time, developers, and market validation.
Open interactive questions:
How do you view the synergy between L1 and L2 for ETH in the coming year? Will you focus more on the foundational expansion progress of L1 or the innovative breakthroughs of a particular vertical L2? Feel free to share your views in the comments.
Some of the data in this article reference Binance Research Institute, Nansen, and Etherscan; the views are for learning and exchange purposes only. A lightweight approach aligned with the Binance ecosystem suggests that users can obtain more real-time market information and project depth reports through Binance Square.
