ETH Bottom Fishing, Endless Bottoms
1. Trend Analysis:
1. Extreme Panic and Value Reversion
From the daily level (1D), ETH is in a typical accelerated bottoming phase. Since the peak of $4,957$ETH at the end of 2025, the market has erased most of the gains from the past year. The price has fallen to the range of $2,000 - $2,100, which is not only an important psychological barrier but also a key starting area for the last round of the rising market. The recent decline has been accompanied by a significant increase in trading volume (the tall red bars in the chart), indicating that panic selling is exiting in large quantities. Typically, a volume increase during a decline signifies the final release of bearish strength.
2. Micro Details: Breathing After the Waterfall
Observing the 4-hour (4H) trend, the market is showing a “vertical drop” trend.
Short-term Structure: The price shows some signs of stabilization near $2,060, forming a very narrow range of sideways fluctuations. Although a few small bullish candles have appeared, the slope of the rebound is very low, and the body is weak. This indicates that the current stabilization is more due to bears temporarily taking profits rather than a large-scale counterattack from bulls.
2. Trading Ideas
1. Long Position Plan (Betting on Oversold Rebound)
The current RSI or other indicators are certainly in a serious oversold area, and a rebound could happen at any time, but the risk is very high. The probability is about 60%.
Aggressive Entry on the Left: If the price retraces and does not break the integer level of $2,000 - $2,050, a light position can be tried for a long.
Stop Loss: Strictly set below $1,980 (once it breaks, the space below will open directly to $1,385).
Target: The first target is around $2,250 (previous platform resistance).
Conservative Entry on the Right: Wait for the 4H level to stabilize above $2,200, and for a clear bottom formation (like a double bottom or a long lower shadow with volume) before entering.
2. Short Position Plan (Trend Following Short or High Short)
The trend is still dominated by bears, and any rebound with low volume is an opportunity to add shorts.
Pressure Level Ambush: If the rebound is blocked in the range of $2,350 - $2,400 (previous support turned pressure), it is an ideal entry point for short positions.
Target: Looking back at $2,100 or the previous low.
Weak Horizontal Consolidation Followed by Falling Break: If it breaks below the integer level of $2,000$ with volume, it indicates that support has completely failed, and one can short in the direction of the trend to capture the momentum of the decline. (Probability is about 30%)
