Data records the combination between forced liquidation events from whales and Vitalik's planned divestment could it be a coincidence at this time?

VITALIK AND ENTITIES CONTINUE TO SELL - BUT STILL NOT DONE?

1. Vitalik Buterin: Divestment for special projects

- In the last 3 days (03/02 - 05/02): Vitalik sold about 2,779 - 2,961 $ETH , bringing in 6.2 - 6.6 million USD (average price 2,228 - 2,238 USD/ETH). Converted into stablecoins like USDC, GHO, EUROC, and LUSD

- On-chain data shows that Vitalik has authorized the sale of up to 5,000 ETH on CoW Swap, signaling that the next disbursement events will occur in the short term.

=> Vitalik stated that the selling roadmap is to fund "special projects" (open-source software/hardware, security, decentralized staking) and biotechnology initiatives through the Kanro organization.

Vitalik continues to sell $ETH

2. Deleverage entities group

*This is the group under the most pressure from falling prices, forced to sell to avoid liquidation on Aave and Hyperliquid.

- Trend Research and Garrett Jin:

Direct link with LD Capital. In the 3 days leading up to 04/02, this group deposited 316,185 ETH (~738 million USD) on Binance.

=> Historical statistics: A total of approximately 160,000 ETH sold, incurring an estimated loss of 1.28 billion USD. The target liquidation price for this group is in the range of 1,685 - 1,855 USD/ETH.

- 11 anonymous wallet entities (Hyperliquid):

Sold 31,700 ETH (~80.8 million USD) within 5 hours on 04/02.

=> Total sales in 4 days reached 47,000 ETH to settle loans on Aave.

Whale Hyperliquid sells $ETH through 11 wallets

- Bitcoin OG (Group 10/11 Whale):

Deposited 15,000 ETH (~33.35 million USD) on Binance for the purpose of liquidity for loan repayment.

- Wallet address 0x4f8:

- Executed large volume transfers of over 100,000 ETH (~250 million USD) to Binance at the beginning of February.

Trend Research is selling $ETH to save its position

3. Direct divestment group and loss-cutting (Capitulation)

- Wallet 0x66cF: Fully exited (full exit) 9,485 ETH at a price of 2,162 USD, reporting a loss of 24.27 million USD (-54% compared to the purchase price 5 months ago).

- Pilgrim Partners Asia: Executed indirect sales through the stock market, liquidating 620,000 shares of ETF ETH (ETHA), equivalent to about 16 million USD on 02/02.

Large $ETH wallets continuously decrease

4. Overview of impact and market response

  • Liquidation data: The total value of ETH liquidated reached 1.16 billion USD in the first week of February. The psychological pressure from Vitalik withdrawing $ETH combined with forced sell orders has created a short-term price decline.

  • The amount sold by Vitalik mainly affects the psychology as it only accounts for a small proportion compared to the market cap (266 billion USD) and serves to fund the ecosystem.

  • In terms of the market: Whale deleveraging events are a greater existing risk, potentially triggering a "liquidation cascade" if the price breaks below 2,100 USD.

  • Counter signals: Accumulation buying (buy the dip) from some OTC entities with large volumes (for example: a whale OTC bought 83,392 ETH).

5. Statistics of unsold ETH balances of large entities (05/02/2026)

  • Vitalik Buterin (Personal wallet and Gnosis Safe): Approximately 13,400 - 13,600 ETH (from the initial withdrawal of 16,384 ETH), has authorized the sale of up to 5,000 ETH on CoW Swap, of which about 2,800 - 3,000 ETH has been matched to stablecoin. Most of the remaining ETH is still in the Gnosis Safe wallet (0xfeb...03b2) to serve the gradual disbursement roadmap for open-source and charitable projects

  • Trend Research (related to LD Capital) Remaining balance: Approximately 488,172 ETH (worth over 1.05 billion USD). Most of this amount is being collateralized on Aave. If the price of ETH continues to decline to the range of 1,600 - 1,800 USD, this entity will have to continue depositing ETH on the exchange to liquidate in order to maintain a safe ratio for the loan.

  • Group of 11 anonymous wallets (Hyperliquid/Aave) Remaining balance: 49,600 ETH (worth ~112 million USD). Being used as collateral for a loan of 86 million USDC. This group tends to sell gradually to lower the debt ratio (deleverage).

  • Garrett Jin: Position on Hyperliquid has been liquidated to almost zero, still holding approximately 469k $ETH (nearly 1 billion USD) in the spot wallet

Garret Jin deposited $ETH on the exchange in recent days, the remaining amount is still very large

  • Some other whale wallets have reduced their $ETH balance to 0

  • What are your thoughts?