The crypto winter has long begun here. What about you?

The world becomes more beautiful day by day. I am alone, but I feel very comfortable. I have no other thoughts, just want to bathe in the sunlight. I long for maturity, ready to die, ready to be reborn.

---Hesse

Another day of sharp decline. In fact, it has been falling for two months now. This time, there haven't been any particularly intense political, economic, or macro events, but the market just keeps falling! In the face of emotions, analysis is worthless!

If one has to find some reasons.

There are the following points:

1️⃣, macroeconomic and policy uncertainty:

Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as Chairman of the Federal Reserve on January 30, and this hawkish signal was interpreted by the market as less monetary easing and a stronger dollar, leading to a comprehensive sell-off of risk assets and ongoing bleeding. While the dollar strengthened, traditional safe-haven assets like gold ($4,974/oz) and silver ($84-86/oz) also plummeted by 0.6%-31%, with funds flowing out of the crypto market.

Changes in interest rate expectations: The Federal Reserve may extend the high interest rate cycle, squeezing liquidity. Microsoft's Azure revenue fell short of expectations, impacting AI/tech sentiment and indirectly affecting crypto.

2️⃣, market structure and leverage issues:

Weekend liquidity thinning amplified the drop: BTC plummeted over 6%+ on Saturday, triggering a chain liquidation. In the past few days, BTC liquidation amounted to $2.5B-$2.56B, with total leverage liquidation exceeding $2.2B (January 31 single day $2.2B-$2.56B), with long positions accounting for 93%-95%, and short positions also faced liquidation!

3️⃣, profit taking and cyclical pullbacks:

Profit taking after a rebound at the end of 2025: BTC has fallen over 40% from the October $126,000 high, similar to the 2018/2022 bear market pattern. Demand has dried up, and buyers are scarce! TVL has also plummeted in the past month!

On-chain data reflects enhanced market defensiveness, but weak demand, similar to cyclical bottom signals.

ETFs continue to bleed 🩸

The only good news is...

There are currently signs of chip accumulation: initial accumulation in the $70k-$80k range, with a dense supply cluster at $66.9k-$70.6k.

At the same time, new buyers are accumulating at the lows, HODLer buying intensity has decreased by 24%, but miner selling pressure surged 8 times! This represents significant short-term pressure, but it is controllable!

Anyway, winter has come, hopefully it won't be colder than 2018 and 2022!