BTC, Unbearable Orders
From the current 1 hour (1H), 4 hours (4H), and daily (1D) trends, the market is in a very clear main downtrend phase.
1. Trend Status: Bears Take Over, Structural Break
Daily Level (1D): A typical Elliott Wave top reversal pattern. The price has completed five waves of upward movement (peak around $ 126,199), and is currently in a large-scale ABC corrective wave. Current Wave: We are currently in the downward process of wave (c). According to the daily chart's trend, the first key target for wave (c) is around 69,000 at Fibonacci 0.618 (will touch), with the final target being 52,000 (not current), and currently 73,200 is the most direct resistance level.
2. Trading Thoughts
Since the current price is hovering near the recent low around 70,140, directly chasing the market price down (shorting) has poor risk-reward. The upcoming trends are mainly these:
1. Inertia Downward (testing 70k) $70,000 - $70,140, the current price is just a step away from the intraday low, and the 1H rebound volume (1.09K) is severely insufficient. Probability 90%.
2. Structural Retracement (Fib 0.618) $69,000 - $69,6757, the market is currently pressured by expectations of the Federal Reserve's incoming chairman Kevin Warsh's tapering, and the 1D level 0.618 has strong attraction. Probability about 75%. This part needs to watch for spikes and increased volume for a potential upward move.
3. Liquidation Level Collapse (testing $65k) $65,000 - $66,900, below $70k there exists a dense long liquidation cluster. Once triggered, the price will enter a liquidity vacuum. Probability about 60%. If it breaks below 69,000, the liquidation pressure will be significant; orders can be placed in this range.
