In his latest statement on platform X, Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX, warned that the current volatility in Bitcoin's price may indicate the likelihood of a Black Swan event in the cryptocurrency market (Odaily). This warning comes at a time when the market is experiencing unprecedented fluctuations, drawing attention from both investors and analysts alike, and highlighting the unpredictable nature of cryptocurrencies.
🔍 Technical analysis of Bitcoin
Current price: 70,879$ (BTC/USDT)
Main psychological support: 70,000$
Main resistance: 75,000$ – 76,500$
Important technical indicators:
RSI is approaching 30, indicating that the market is close to oversold areas, which often precedes a short-term rebound (TradingView – BTC Technical Analysis).
MACD shows a continuation of the bearish trend, with a possibility of the selling momentum beginning to fade.
The recent trading volume is relatively high at 3.6 billion USDT over 24 hours, reflecting intense activity among investors.
Technical conclusion:
The market shows signs of significant bearish pressure, but technical indicators suggest a potential short-term rebound or technical correction soon before the trend continues.
⚠️ Black Swan risks
Arthur Hayes indicates that extreme volatility and sudden selling pressure could lead to:
Rapid price collapses without warning.
Unexpected movements from large institutions holding massive positions in BTC.
Potential multiplier effect on the entire market,
Including other major cryptocurrencies such as ETH and BNB.
These events are rare but have a significant impact, which is why traders should pay attention to liquidity levels and open positions.
🧠 Strategic tips for investors
For long-term investors:
Focusing on rebalancing and gradually entering at key support areas.
For short-term traders:
Monitoring resistance and support levels, and using stop-loss orders to avoid large slippages.
Avoid excessively leveraged positions during this period to reduce the risks of sudden liquidation.
