#小非农数据不及预期
On February 4th, Beijing time, the United States released the January ADP private sector employment data (small non-farm), indicating that only 22,000 jobs were added, far below the market expectation of 48,000, and also lower than the revised previous value of 37,000, marking the lowest level since December 2023.
The data shows that without the addition of 74,000 jobs in the education and healthcare services industry, private sector employment may shrink, with weak hiring in manufacturing, construction, and other sectors highlighting the structural divergence in the job market. This “cold” performance contrasts with the Federal Reserve's earlier judgment of stability in the job market, reinforcing market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March.
After the data was released, the dollar index came under short-term pressure, with assets like gold and U.S. Treasuries rising in response, and volatility in U.S. stock index futures increasing. As a leading indicator of non-farm employment data, this significant miss in the ADP data casts a shadow over the official non-farm report to be released on February 11th and makes the pace of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shift a focus for the market.
