📉 BITCOIN: Is the 30,000 USD scenario realistic? [Analysis #4]
Sentiment in the cryptocurrency market has cooled sharply. After breaking the 80,000 USD barrier, investors' eyes are turned south. Are we facing a return to levels from 2023? Let's look at the technical facts. 🔍
🛠 What do the indicators say?
RSI (Relative Strength Index): On the daily timeframe, we are approaching the oversold zone. While this suggests a chance for a local rebound, the lack of momentum could push us lower. However, the 30k scenario would require extreme capitulation that we haven't seen in years.
Moving averages: The key 200-day SMA (simple moving average) is still high. As long as we don't break it, the long-term trend remains secure. A drop to 30,000 USD would mean a technical "turning off the lights" for the current bull market.
Support levels: Before we see 30k, we need to break through the "concrete" levels:
75,000 USD – the current front line.
65,000 USD – psychological support.
48,000 - 52,000 USD – key base from 2024.
⚠️ Conclusion
A drop to 30,000 USD would mean a decline of over 60% from the peaks. While Bitcoin's history knows such cases, the presence of institutional capital (ETF) creates a much harder floor than in previous cycles. This is a "black swan" scenario, not a baseline forecast.
💬 What do you think? Is it just a deep correction before the next rally, or are we really returning to "crypto-winter"? Let us know in the comments! 👇
#Bitcoin #Kryptowaluty #AnalizaTechniczna #BTC #Inwestycje 🧡 $BTC $BTC
