On-chain $BTC currently confirming the control rights belong to the bears, with a significant weakening of demand at important price levels
1. Breaking psychological and technical support levels
*The True Market Mean index has been broken. Trading prices below this level has two consequences:
- Losing the benchmark of confidence: Most short-term traders are currently in a loss position, increasing sell-off pressure to cut losses instead of accumulating more.
- State change: The market is transitioning from the "correction in an uptrend" phase to "establishing a local downtrend."
2. Supply - Demand Analysis and Absorption Zones
*Based on liquidity density and past data, the market is observing two important supply zones:
- Area $70k – $80k: Currently serves as a psychological resistance level.
- Area $66.9k – $70.6k: This is the price cluster with the highest trading density. Logically, this is the only area with enough potential to absorb significant selling pressure, however, there are no signs confirming buying power here.
3. Stress Metrics and Cash Flow
- Realized Loss: The pressure to cut losses remains high (average >1.26 billion USD/day). This indicates that outflows are overwhelmingly dominant.
- The decline of institutions: ETF funds and Treasury have shifted to a Net Outflow state. The absence of money flow from financial institutions leaves the market lacking a solid "support base," pushing risk towards liquidations.
4. Derivatives Market and Volatility
*Derivatives market data reinforces the negative scenario:
- Long Liquidation: The frequency of long liquidations has surged, indicating a fierce flushing of leverage is taking place.
- Options Skew: The Skew index leans heavily towards the Downside. Traders are prioritizing buying put options for risk insurance rather than betting on a recovery.
5. Personal conclusion
- We may be witnessing a "quieter" bear season compared to the past, where the main market movements are driven by large money outflows and continuous long liquidations? No collapse of major entities like last season has been observed.
- In the context of weak Spot Demand, every short-term price increase should be viewed as a technical bounce rather than a trend reversal; there needs to be sufficient buying power to change the current trend before we can be optimistic.
- We haven't encountered many questions like "what is the value of $BTC ?" as we did at last season's bottom, as most are waiting to catch the bottom.
- What’s your opinion, everyone?
