February 2026 – Wall Street is holding its breath.
No longer just vague rumors, the currency war in the US has officially entered the "show your cards" phase. Donald Trump, with his familiar uncompromising style, just sent a chilling message to the Federal Reserve (Fed): Interest rates must be lowered, and that is an order.
But where does Bitcoin stand in this political chess game?
1. "If he intends to raise interest rates, he wouldn't be sitting there!"
That was President Trump's response when asked about Kevin Warsh – the person he has chosen to trust for the Fed chair. No beating around the bush, no diplomacy, Trump has drawn a clear line: Warsh sits in this hot seat for one reason only – to cut interest rates.
This message dispels any doubts about policy direction. For the White House, lowering interest rates is not a "choice", but a "necessity". Trump wants cheap money flooding the market to stimulate the economic engine, and anyone who goes against this – including Warsh – will be seen as a roadblock.
2. Kevin Warsh: The "Hawk" or a Pawn?
Veteran investors are sweating, not because they don't believe interest rates will drop, but because they are concerned about the price to pay.
Kevin Warsh has a past as a "Hawk" (a supporter of monetary tightening). His sudden shift to support interest rate cuts raises suspicion in the market. The scariest scenario that investment funds are whispering about:
The "Iron Hand in a Velvet Glove" strategy: Warsh may appease Trump by cutting interest rates (the surface), but secretly draining liquidity from the banking system (the depths).
If this happens, the market will fall into a state of "cheap but scarce money." A perfect trap.
3. Bitcoin: The Final Shakeout or a Resurrection?
Bitcoin – the most sensitive "child" of the flow of money – is reacting violently. The test of the price range $70,000 - $74,000 was not random. It is fear.
Why is Bitcoin afraid when interest rates are about to drop?
The liquidity concern: Bitcoin needs excess cash (liquidity) to pump prices, not just low interest rates. If Warsh cuts rates but pulls money back (QT), Bitcoin will lose its "lifeline".
Crowd psychology: Uncertainty about Warsh is causing the "whales" to temporarily stand aside and observe.
However, the light has not gone out.
If Warsh truly follows Trump's "order" to pump money broadly and the USD weakens, Bitcoin will face its strongest recovery opportunity of the year. History has shown: When the money valve is opened, Bitcoin is always the fastest asset.
Conclusion: The Gamble of Q1
We are at a fateful turning point. Trump's promise is the catalyst, but Warsh's actual actions will be the real test.
For investors, this is not the time to "All-in" blindly on news, but rather a time to observe the flow of money. Once Warsh taps the hammer to lower interest rates and liquidity is pumped back in, the Bitcoin ship may set sail and leave the doubters behind.
#bitcoin #TRUMP #Fed #KevinWarshNextFedChair #FOMC
