#加密市场观察 #Max

"Death Spiral" Warning Resurfaces: When "Big Short" Michael Burry Calls for BTC at $50,000

Famous for predicting the 2008 financial crisis, "Big Short" Michael Burry issues a sharp warning again: If Bitcoin falls below $70,000, it may plunge into a "death spiral," targeting $50,000.

Is this warning significant?

· Technical Resonance: His warning is not an isolated case. Moving averages show a "strong sell" configuration, RSI indicates a sell signal, and the weekly bearish trend is evident; $50,000 is indeed the next key technical and psychological support level.

· Fund Contradictions: The drastic fluctuations in ETF fund flows (inflow of $560 million yesterday, outflow of $270 million today) corroborate the current hesitation and divergence in the market.

· Extreme Sentiment: The Fear and Greed Index has dropped to 14, indicating that the market has entered the realm of "extreme fear," which is often a breeding ground for reversals or accelerated declines.

My calm assessment: Burry's warning must be taken seriously, especially in relation to his insights on macro risks. However, the crypto market is no longer the same as the subprime crisis of 2008; it has global, 24/7 trading depth and a growing institutional base. The trigger for a "death spiral" requires a combination of liquidity exhaustion, structural selling pressure, and a complete collapse of confidence, and currently, the conditions are not fully met.

In the short term, $70,000 is the critical defense line. If breached, market sentiment will deteriorate rapidly, increasing the likelihood of seeking support at $50,000. Defense remains the top priority until a clear trend reversal is established.

When the market is overshadowed by macro concerns and the narrative of a price "death spiral," I prefer to focus on those processes that continue to create real value, unaffected by short-term volatility. For example, the @Max Charity community, whether the market yells "bull" or "crash," is building a foundation of real value independent of financial cycles through its offline actions and user network growth based on educational inclusivity. This is a more solid expression of the crypto spirit.