Hyperliquid ($HYPE ) has become one of the strongest performers of early February 2026, surging 76% in the past two weeks and trading near $36 as of Feb 3, 2026. The rally is being fueled by growing anticipation around the HIP-4 upgrade, which introduces fully collateralized outcome contracts a major evolution in DeFi-native prediction markets.

Despite the aggressive price expansion, social dominance remains surprisingly low, suggesting this move is still being driven by informed participants rather than late retail speculation. Historically, rallies with muted social hype tend to have more room to extend.


The HIP-4 Catalyst: Why This Upgrade Matters

HIP-4 introduces a new class of fully collateralized outcome contracts, designed to settle within predefined price ranges. Unlike traditional derivatives, these contracts:

• Cap both gains and losses

• Remove counterparty risk

• Enable prediction-market and options-style strategies

• Improve capital efficiency without leverage fragility

This positions Hyperliquid as a core infrastructure layer for specialized DeFi markets rather than just another trading venue. If adoption accelerates post-launch, HIP-4 could materially increase protocol usage, fees, and long-term value accrual.


On-Chain & Sentiment Signals


• Social dominance remains low, indicating the rally hasn’t reached euphoric conditions

• Institutional and whale activity is rising, aligning with infrastructure-driven narratives

• Capital rotation favors protocols with real utility, not meme-driven momentum

This backdrop supports a structurally healthier uptrend for now.

Derivatives Data: Strong Conviction, Concentrated Risk

Futures markets show a clear bullish bias:

• $3.86M in long liquidation exposure

• Only $93.7K in short liquidations

This imbalance highlights high trader conviction, but also introduces fragility. As price rises, remaining shorts are forced to cover, adding upside pressure. However, a sharp move below $30–$26 could trigger a cascading long liquidation event, rapidly unwinding the rally.

Technical Roadmap: Levels That Matter

HYPE has gained nearly 20% in the last 24 hours alone, extending its multi-week breakout.

Upside Levels

• $42 → first major resistance

• $47 → trend confirmation zone

• $59 → all-time high (still ~60% away)

Reclaiming $42 and $47 as support would strongly validate continuation toward ATH.

Downside Risk

• $30 → key psychological and technical support

• $26 → major long liquidation cluster (bullish thesis invalidation zone)

Big Picture Takeaway

HYPE’s rally is not just momentum-driven it’s being supported by real protocol evolution, improving market structure, and relatively muted retail participation. That said, derivatives leverage is building, making risk management critical at these levels.

The question now is timing:

Is HIP-4 the catalyst that pushes HYPE decisively toward $59, or does the $3.86M long liquidation cluster turn into a volatility trap before the next leg up?