After a high peak and a subsequent drop, the evening ADP data will determine the crucial 5000 level.

Gold experienced extreme fluctuations during the day, surging to 5091.92 in the European session before quickly retreating. As of now, the current price is around 5020, with the daily increase narrowing to 1.45%, entering a critical decision period for the short term. The US ADP employment data at 21:15 this evening will play a key role in determining whether gold can hold the 5000 level and continue the bullish trend.

Today's market opened at 4948.37 in the Asian session, hitting a low of 4909.80 before stabilizing and rebounding. The European session broke through the key resistance at 4950, leading to a significant surge, reaching a new intraday high of 5091.92. However, profit-taking pressure at high levels was quickly released, causing gold to drop back rapidly, with a minimum touching 5013. The short-term 15-minute and 5-minute charts showed a top divergence, leading to a technical correction.

From a trend perspective, the bullish pattern of a large daily candle has not changed. This pullback is not a reversal but rather a washout action in a strong market. Currently, the 5000-5010 range serves as a resonant support with the daily MA5 moving average and a round number, which is also the lifeline for bulls. The outcome at this position will become a watershed moment for the evening market.

The news front is a key variable for today's market. The US ADP employment figures for January, expected at 48,000, are above the previous value of 41,000. Additionally, the service sector PMI and ISM non-manufacturing PMI will be released simultaneously. If the ADP data exceeds expectations, it will weaken interest rate cut expectations, negatively impacting gold, and the price may break through the 5000 level to test 4950. If the data falls short of expectations, it will validate that the pullback is merely a washout, and gold may return above 5050 to challenge the previous high again.

Specific operational strategy for gold:

Buy gold on stabilization around 5000-5010, with a stop loss at 4990 and a target of 5080-5090. If it breaks, look towards 5120; if it drops below 4990, rebound around 5000 for a light short, with a stop loss at 5020 and a target of 4960.

In this tempting market, getting lost is the norm, but perseverance is rare. If you find yourself in a state of operational confusion and increasing losses, I hope to provide you with a guiding light. I am Guo Lan, not here to hype or criticize, just to discuss logic and levels. You are welcome to come and share your thoughts! #黄金白银反弹 $XAU