Bitcoin just had a sharp drop to around 74,680 USD, mainly due to a wave of liquidations in the futures market. However, looking closely at the macro environment, derivatives, and cash flow, the overall picture is not as negative as the price reflects.
Below are 4 main arguments according to Cointelegraph's analysis:
1️⃣ The macro environment has not yet entered an extreme risk-off state
The yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury bond is holding around 3.54%, almost unchanged from previous weeks.
The S&P 500 is only about 0.4% below its ATH, indicating that the stock market still believes the U.S. budget tensions are short-term.
→ If the macro crisis is really serious, these indicators would have reacted much more strongly.
2️⃣ The derivatives market is holding up quite well
$BTC has decreased by 40.8% from ATH, but futures have not fallen into backwardation - an important sign that the short side has not gained absolute dominance.
The basis rate for 2-month BTC futures is currently around 3%, reflecting relatively weak demand for long leveraged positions. In neutral conditions, this index usually falls within the 5-10% range.
However, open interest remains around ~40 billion USD, only down 10% in 30 days, indicating that the derivatives market is not under stress.
3️⃣ Bitcoin ETF has seen capital outflows, but it is not yet a 'flight'.
Net outflow of 3.2 billion USD is only equivalent to <3% of total AUM of BTC spot ETF.
This figure is more of an adjustment than a 'flight from Bitcoin'.
4️⃣ The concern around Strategy (MSTR) is exaggerated
Strategy does not have a clause requiring the sale of BTC at a certain price.
The company is holding 1.44 billion USD in cash, sufficient to meet financial obligations in a worst-case scenario.
→ The risk of having to sell $BTC Bitcoin in a forced liquidation scenario is very low.
👉 $BTC may still experience short-term volatility as the market 'digests' the recent drop. However, from a macro perspective, derivatives, and cash flow, the 75K USD level is playing a strong support role, and it is likely that this is the price bottom for BTC in 2026.
What do you think about this perspective?