GOLDMAN SACHS GOT THE COPPER CRUNCH WRONG BY 6X! šØ
The official model put Chinese smelter collapse probability at 6.4%. Real-world data shows 35%. They missed the severity by a factor of six. This is a massive commodities pricing error.
Chinese smelters refine 44% of global copper but are currently paying miners to take ore (spot TC/RC fees are negative $65/ton).
They are surviving ONLY on three side hustles:
ā¢ Sulfuric Acid (40% revenue)
ā¢ Gold Recovery (35% revenue)
ā¢ Cathode Premiums (25% revenue)
GS failed to model the correlation between these lifelines. Massive oversight detected.