February 4, 2026 (Wednesday) Core Overview: BTC approximately $76,000 (-3.10%), ETH approximately $2,280 (-3.72%), market in extreme fear; only a few sectors like SocialFi, AI, and DePIN are going against the trend.

1. Market Conditions

• BTC: At one point during the day, it fell below $73,000, currently around $76,000, with a 7-day drop of over 20%; Fear and Greed Index at 22%, in the extreme fear zone.

• ETH: Underperformed compared to BTC, 7-day drop of 25.08%; Lido and other staking protocols' TVL dropped over 25% in 7 days, with some stakers withdrawing.

• SOL: TVL dropped 10.60% over 7 days, but the 24-hour DEX trading volume reached $5.159 billion, on-chain activity remains high.

• Sector Highlights: SocialFi (+2.14%), AI (+0.06%), DePIN (+0.01%) went against the trend; TON (+2.80%), WLD (+2.03%), AR (+2.40%) led the gains.

2. Funds and Institutions

• ETF Funds: Bitcoin ETF continues to see net outflows, BlackRock ETF had over $300 million outflow in a single day.

• Institutional Rebalancing: Grayscale reduced holdings by 12,000 BTC and increased ETH; HashKey Capital withdrew $14.8 million in ETH from Binance.

• Large Movements: 505,500 SOL (approximately $50.34 million) transferred to Binance; Binance transferred 1,433 BTC (approximately $109 million).

3. On-Chain and Regulation

• On-Chain Dynamics: Two dormant ETH addresses from 5 years ago were activated, depositing 44,500 ETH and borrowing $104 million USDT, then purchasing 45,900 ETH.

• Regulatory Progress: The U.S. CLARITY Act passed the Senate Agriculture Committee by a narrow margin, the regulatory framework is becoming clearer but bipartisan disagreements remain.

4. Market Perspectives

• Bullish: Tom Lee claims bottom factors are in place; Michaël van de Poppe believes the cycle bottom has emerged.

• Bearish/Cautious: Bernstein Research believes it may drop to $60,000; Wintermute warns of liquidity crisis and liquidation risks.