This morning, the cryptocurrency market experienced a thrilling 'V-shaped shock.' Bitcoin surged from the abyss of $72,945 to $75,953 in just a few hours, while Ethereum fluctuated violently between $2,110 and $2,340, ultimately stabilizing at $2,241. This volatility not only tests the nerves of investors but also reveals the intricate game between the current crypto market and the macro environment.
Market Sketch: Structural Differentiation in a River of Blood
According to HTX market data, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies evaporated by 3.3% in the past 24 hours, falling to $2.648 trillion. Among mainstream assets, Bitcoin fell by 3.37%, Ethereum by 4.3%, and SOL breached the psychological barrier of $100, currently reported at $97.8. However, the real disaster zone lies in the altcoin market:
ZAMA led the decline with a drop of 22.2%, while tokens like EUL, SOLV, and HUMA all fell by more than 14%. This pattern of 'mainstream mild decline, altcoin collapse' is a typical characteristic of risk asset deleveraging—when market liquidity tightens, high-beta assets are hit first.
What’s more interesting is the correlation between U.S. stocks and the crypto market. Overnight, U.S. stocks closed with the Dow down 0.3%, the S&P 500 down 0.8%, and the Nasdaq plummeting 1.4%. Paypal fell 20.3% due to disappointing earnings guidance, and tech giants like Microsoft and Nvidia were also not spared. Crypto concept stocks faced similar pressure: Strategy (MSTR) fell 4.56%, Coinbase (COIN) fell 4.36%, and BitGo Holdings (BTGO) plummeted 5.86%.
This synchronized decline across markets confirms that cryptocurrencies have deeply integrated into the global risk asset system, and the narrative of 'safe-haven assets' is facing severe challenges.
The eye of the macro storm: Trump's tariff policy and the Federal Reserve's 'prisoner's dilemma'
The trigger for this round of plummet points directly to the uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy. According to several institutions' analyses, Trump plans to impose tariffs of 10%-20% on all imported goods, with tariffs on Chinese goods potentially reaching 60%. If this policy is implemented, it will significantly raise U.S. inflation levels, forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates for a longer period.
However, the market's panic stems not only from tariffs themselves but also from the collapse of policy credibility. A crypto venture capitalist candidly stated: 'Bitcoin is now tied to this administration, and is currently paying the price for being associated with the (Republican) party.' The previously heated narrative of 'U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserves' now appears weak in the face of the tariff storm.
From the Federal Reserve's perspective, although 100 basis points of rate cuts have accumulated in 2025, the latest FOMC meeting minutes show that the committee's concerns about 'slightly high' inflation have not been alleviated. More worryingly, long-term holders are systematically selling off—according to K33 Research data, the number of Bitcoins held for at least two years has decreased by 1.6 million, worth about $140 billion. When ETF capital inflows cannot absorb this selling pressure, market supply and demand balance quickly tilts towards the bears.
The mystery of the V-shaped reversal: Technical rebound or trend reversal?
Despite the market experiencing severe fluctuations, Bitcoin's rapid rebound around $72,000 indicates strong support at this price level. Looking back at 2025, Bitcoin fell to $74,508 due to tariff conflicts in March, and then gradually rose again under the influence of policy easing and interest rate cut expectations.
This V-shaped reversal may stem from the following factors:
1. Technical correction from overselling: The RSI indicator shows severe short-term overselling, triggering bottom-fishing programs from algorithmic trading and quantitative funds.
2. Short covering in the futures market: The highly leveraged perpetual contract market triggered a chain liquidation during the crash, and profit-taking by shorts created a reverse thrust.
3. The support effect of spot ETFs: Although capital inflows are slowing, spot ETFs from institutions like BlackRock still provide bottom support, preventing free-fall declines.
However, it should be noted that this rebound may only be a technical correction in a bear market, rather than a trend reversal. Historical data shows that after a single-day decline of more than 1.5% in the S&P 500 index in 2025, the average rebound the next day is 1.1%, but Bitcoin may not necessarily follow—on a Friday in October, when U.S. stocks experienced a V-shaped reversal, Bitcoin actually plummeted by 5%, with a weekly decline of 9.14%.
Investor insight: Seek certainty amid uncertainty
The current market is caught in a triple game of macro policies, capital flows, and narrative reconstruction:
• Short-term: The uncertainty of tariff policies will continue to suppress risk assets, and the volatility in the crypto market may remain high.
• Medium-term: If the Federal Reserve pauses interest rate cuts due to inflationary pressures, the high-interest environment will worsen the U.S. government's debt burden, which may, in turn, strengthen Bitcoin's 'digital gold' safe-haven properties—provided that the market regains confidence in its narrative.
• Long-term: Local governments like Texas have begun to allocate Bitcoin ETFs, and the institutionalization process is deepening, but retail interest is shifting towards prediction markets like Polymarket, with a clear trend of fund diversion.
For investors, position management is more important than timing the market. Before the macro storm subsides, maintaining a moderate cash ratio and avoiding high-leverage operations may be the survival rule to cross cycles.
What do you think about this V-shaped reversal? Is it a buying opportunity or a continuation of the decline? Feel free to share your views in the comments! If you find this analysis valuable, don't forget to like, share, and follow us for more in-depth market insights! 🔔
Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile; please evaluate risks rationally.#美国政府部分停摆结束 #美国伊朗对峙 #沃什获提名利多还是利空 #xAI招聘加密专家 #特朗普称坚定支持加密货币 $BTC
