Review of yesterday: perfectly hit
Casual remarks return to the main topic:
Current price: 2270 USDT, ETH is in a key oscillation zone. Short-term (1H) and medium-term (4H) signals show significant divergence—1H strongly bearish, 4H slightly bullish, forming a typical 'short-term short, long-term long' structure. This is precisely the point of long and short competition that day traders love, with attractive win rates and risk-reward ratios!
1H chart: strong downward trend, short-term short window has opened
Core indicator signals:
ADX = 29.20 (＞25, confirming strong trend, and direction is downward)
MACD = -16.01 (continuing death cross, momentum is bearish)
RSI = 49.65 (neutral, but failed to break 50, selling pressure dominant)
Price significantly below VWAP (2622.82), OBV continues to flow out (-1.48 million+)
Bollinger Band position: Price is below the mid-line (upper band 2345 / lower band 2150), potential to test the lower band
Probability assessment: Probability of reaching take profit (2170) is 57.26%, stop loss (2320) is 42.74%
Expected amplitude: Short-term decline of 2.19%, volatility matches the current market
Trading strategy (short sell recommendation):
Entry point: Around 2295.13 (conservative entry within 10-30 minutes of high volatility)
Take profit level: 2170.66 (main target)
Stop loss level: 2320.03 (strict control)
Position building: First position 20%, if it breaks EMA50 (2305) can add 10-30%
Reduce position: 2190.58 reduce by 30% (within 1-2 hours, or MACD golden cross exit early)
Position suggestion: Hold until take profit or OBV reversal signal, foresee mid-term target of 2220
Reward-risk ratio: 2.00:1
4H chart: Upward structure not broken, mid-line rebound probability higher
Core indicator signal: ADX still at 29.20 confirms trend strength, but MACD and OBV show signs of capital inflow, price consolidating near the mid-line
Probability assessment: Probability of reaching take profit (2370) is 66.19%, stop loss (2220) is 33.81%
Expected amplitude: Up 8.77%, more explosive potential
Trading strategy (mid-term long recommendation):
Entry point: Around 2245.56 (buy on pullback, within 10-30 minutes)
Take profit level: 2370.03 (main target)
Stop loss level: 2220.66
Position building: First position 20%, add position upon breaking EMA50 (2305)
Reduce position: 2350.11 reduce by 30% (1-2 hours, or MACD death cross)
Position suggestion: Hold until take profit, expected to reach the mid-term level of 2320 within 4 hours
Reward-risk ratio: 2.00:1
Overall suggestion summary
Aggressive type: Prioritize following 1H short sell, quickly capture 2.19% pullback profit, strictly adhere to stop loss
Conservative type: Wait for 1H bearish release, buy on dips in the 2245-2270 range for 4H long positions, aiming for greater upward space
Risk warning: Strictly control position <2%, combine stop loss + OBV reversal to exit, do not chase long without rebound signals
Current long-short divergence is the best operating window, reward-risk ratio reaches 2:1, worth paying close attention to!
What do you think about this operation? Is it a short sell to take profit or wait for a pullback to enter? Feel free to discuss in the comments! 🚀
#ETH #以太坊ETF批准预期 #日内交易 #美国伊朗对峙