At the beginning of 2026, the A-share non-ferrous metals sector ignited a 'silver frenzy.' Silver Non-Ferrous leveraged the tailwind of COMEX silver futures hitting a new high and overwhelming demand in photovoltaics, achieving eight consecutive limit-ups, with the stock price doubling directly from its low point, and its market value skyrocketing by over a hundred billion instantly. The stock forum was in an uproar: 'Silver Non-Ferrous, pure silver concept, go for it!' Retail investors shouted 'catch the falling knife,' while institutions quietly reduced their positions.

What about the results? At the end of January, the performance forecast was released: a net loss of 450 million to 675 million for 2025, marking a new low in recent years. Subsequently, there were continuous risk warning announcements, and the stock price opened with a limit down, halving faster than anyone else. The once 'top escape tool' instantly turned into a 'nightmare for the bag holders.' Investors regret it: when can they safely escape?

This play, in the cryptocurrency circle, has another version—Plasma project (@Plasma , $XPL ).

Plasma is a high-performance Layer 1 specifically designed for stablecoins, focusing on zero-fee USDT transfers, <1 second block time, 1000+ TPS, EVM compatibility. The mainnet launched in September 2025, backed by Tether, Peter Thiel, and other big shots, with TVL surging to 8 billion USD in a week, XPL price once broke 1.5 USD, and market value instantly surpassed 10 billion. Twitter was filled with cries of 'the next TRON' and 'stablecoin payment revolution'.

But the plot can reverse just as quickly: After 6 weeks of launch, XPL plummeted 85%, dropping to around 0.2 USD. Contract liquidations, liquidity withdrawals, token unlocking pressure... everything feels familiar.

Where is Silver Color's 'escape window'?

Reviewing Silver Color: The only ones who can exit completely are a very few large holders who cleared their positions at the 3rd-4th limit. They saw that the company's gold and silver revenue ratio was extremely low, with a gross profit margin of only 6.54%, and a huge expected liability to be accounted for in 2025. The stock price surge was entirely driven by sentiment and topic speculation; once silver prices corrected and risk warnings were issued, funds instantly fled.

What about retail investors? Chasing the 7th-8th limit, hitting the peak, and still stuck.

What is Plasma's 'escape password'?

Plasma has an additional layer of 'moat'—real usage scenarios.

As of now, Plasma's TVL remains at the level of 7 billion USD, with USDT's circulation ranking among the top four stablecoin chains. The real transaction volume of zero-fee USDT transfers is astonishing. Plasma One (the native Neobank for stablecoins) has been launched in MENA and other regions where USD is scarce, with access to over 100 countries and 200+ payment methods, which is not a PPT but real money in circulation.

However, hidden dangers are equally obvious: in 2026, there will be a large amount of token unlocks (team, investors, ecological shares), and circulation will significantly increase; currently, there is still a lot of arbitrage funds in the TVL, and the real C-end payment penetration rate is still climbing; competitors TRON, Solana, and even emerging stablecoin chains are all vying for market share.

So, the 'safe escape window' of #Plasma is actually clearer and earlier than Silver Color:

1. The first wave of peaks in October-November 2025: When TVL breaks 8 billion, and $XPL breaks 1.5 USD, early VCs and smart money have already reduced their holdings in batches. These people are the true 'third limit' sellers.

2. In the first half of 2026: When Plasma One is widely implemented, real payment GMV continues to grow, and the daily transfer volume of zero-fee USDT stabilizes above 1 billion USD, the project enters a 'fundamental-driven' stage. At this point, even if unlocking pressure arises, prices may still be supported—equivalent to Silver Color having 'doubling silver ore + turning losses into profits' as fundamental support.

3. After the unlocking peak in the second half of 2026: If the project withstands the selling pressure, the TVL does not collapse, and the ecosystem continues to expand, that will be a true signal of 'top escape completion'. Conversely, if, like Silver Color, silver prices (which here represent stablecoin adoption rates) correct and funds flee, then the last batch of high-flying investors will become the ones left holding the bag.

Creative Review: What if Silver Color is a Chain?

Imagine: Silver Color issues a 'Silver Chain' that focuses on 'zero-fee silver transfers', promising 'photovoltaic demand explosion = TVL explosion'. Initially, it did attract a large amount of arbitrage funds, the TVL surged, and tokens doubled. But when people found that the company's actual silver production ratio was low and profits relied on provisions, funds instantly withdrew—doesn't this reflect the reality of Silver Color?

The difference with Plasma is that it doesn't rely on 'concepts' to survive, but on 'infrastructure'. Zero-fee USDT is not a marketing gimmick, but a native mechanism at the protocol layer; EVM compatibility + Bitcoin bridge is not a PPT, but a function that is already online; having 100+ global partners is not a blank check, but real payment implementation in MENA and Latin America.

Escaping has never been about watching the K-line, but about looking at the fundamentals.

The story of Silver Color tells us: no matter how hot the topic is, if the fundamentals don't keep up, the escape window is only a few days.

The story of Plasma reminds us: even with real usage and backing from large institutions, unlocking + arbitrage funds + market sentiment can still create a crash. The only ones who can 'safely escape' are those who reduce their holdings in batches when TVL, trading volume, and real applications are all rising.

Next time you see '8 consecutive limits', 'TVL 8 billion in a week', 'the next trillion track', ask yourself: if this were Silver Color, what number limit am I at now? If this were Plasma, am I prepared to run before the fundamentals are realized, or wait for the unlocking and bet on belief?

The market has never lacked topics; what it lacks is the foresight to see 'when can I escape'.

(Purely original opinion, for reference only; investment has risks, market entry requires caution)