In November 2023, when Bitcoin was still hovering around $34,522, an author penned profound reflections on halving, scarcity, and long-term holding. Sixteen months later, Bitcoin experienced a dramatic fluctuation from a historical high of $73,000 to a "flash crash" of $75,000. This article reevaluates the core logic that spans cycles—the stock-to-flow model, ETF channel effects, and price anchoring games—and explores why the simple strategy of "holding Bitcoin" remains valid amidst a perfect storm.
1. The Intersection of Prophecy and Reality
On November 4, 2023, the closing price of Bitcoin was $34,522.
An anonymous author wrote in the article: "By 2025, we may indeed see Bitcoin reaching $100K+." At that time, the market had just slowly recovered from the deep bear of 2022, the halving cycle had not yet arrived, and the approval of the spot Bitcoin ETF was still uncertain.
Today, 16 months later, Bitcoin did indeed reach a historic high of $73,000 but then fell back to around $75,000 in February 2025. This price point happens to be the key support during the tariff storm in April 2025, as well as the psychological defense line for many investors.
History does not repeat itself simply, but it always rhymes in similar ways.
That author mentioned: "You think you are still in a bear market, but in fact, the bear market has quietly ended without you realizing it." This statement was validated in early 2024—when most people were still discussing whether the ETF would pass, Bitcoin had already quietly broken through $45,000, starting a new cycle.
However, the market also sounded an alarm for all "coin holders": Even the long-term bullish logic cannot immunize against short-term liquidity storms.
II. Stock-to-flow model: Mathematical proof of scarcity
The "stock-to-flow" (SF) model proposed by Arab scholar Saifedean Ammous in (Bitcoin Standard) remains the core framework for understanding Bitcoin's value.
In 2023, Bitcoin's SF value was about 54, comparable to gold. After the fourth halving in April 2024, this value surged to 108, and the annual inflation rate dropped to around 0.9%— Bitcoin officially became the most scarce asset in human history, surpassing gold.
This change in supply dynamics is the underlying logic for Bitcoin's long-term price increase, rather than any ETF or institutional narrative.
Interestingly, when gold and silver faced epic crashes in February 2025 (with gold prices dropping more than 10% in a single day and silver plummeting 26%), Bitcoin's relative performance instead validated the resilience of this model. The crash of precious metals stemmed from forced liquidations of highly leveraged positions and the tightening liquidity expectations brought by the "Walsh Shock," but Bitcoin's scarcity logic remained intact.
That author wrote in 2023: "Bitcoin has become the most scarce asset in human history since gold." It seems that this judgment is being repriced by the market—not through gentle rises, but through violent fluctuations.
III. ETF channel: The metaphor of the Suez Canal comes true
The author compared BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF to the "Suez Canal," connecting old money with new pools. This prophecy came true in 2024.
The approval of the spot Bitcoin ETF indeed brought a massive influx of capital. The data you previously shared showed that within a certain period in 2025, the net inflow of the spot Bitcoin ETF over the past five weeks reached $6.63 billion, and BlackRock's crypto investment portfolio surged from $54.77 billion at the beginning of the year to $102.09 billion.
But the author also reminds: "Whether BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF gets approved or not is not important, nor is when it gets approved. What matters is the expectation of 'Bitcoin ETF approval,' which will gradually form momentum as bait to boost market confidence."
This judgment was reversed in February 2025. When the market became concerned about the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve Chairman nominee Walsh, ETF funds began to flow out, and Bitcoin's price came under pressure. The channel still exists, but the direction of the water flow can reverse.
The metaphor of the Suez Canal still holds— it connects two oceans, but whether ships can pass depends on the wind and tide.
IV. Price anchoring game: From Manhattan land to digital gold
The author likened Bitcoin to "land in Manhattan," a social class marker. This view was fully validated in the 2024-2025 market.
When Bitcoin broke $70,000, it indeed became "the courtyard in the second ring of Beijing, the old Western-style house on Hengshan Road in Shanghai, the villa on the Peak in Hong Kong." Holding Bitcoin is no longer just an investment behavior, but a symbol of identity—it showcases the strength, stability, loyalty, and faith of its holder.
But the cruelty of the price anchoring game lies in: it is both a moat and a trap.
The crash in February 2025 proved that when liquidity tightens, even "land in Manhattan" can temporarily depreciate. The crash of gold and silver has already shown that no asset can thrive alone in a deleveraging storm.
However, the core argument of the author still holds: "The greatest anchor for Bitcoin is the consensus of its total supply of 21 million." This consensus has not wavered in the storm. What has truly shaken is the positions of leveraged players, the confidence of speculators, and the flow of short-term capital.
V. Who took your coins: The 2025 version of the altcoin trap
The author warned in 2023: "People say they love Bitcoin, but in reality, they are buying altcoins. This is exactly what the manipulators want; they willingly hand over their chips, and you receive trash coins while they get Bitcoin."
This warning was almost forgotten during the 'altcoin season' of 2024. When Bitcoin broke new highs, Ethereum, Solana, various AI concept coins, and meme coins surged in succession, many believed "this time is different."
But the crash in February 2025 provided the answer. Bitcoin dropped from $87,000 to $75,000, a decline of about 14%; while many altcoins fell more than 30%, even 50%. The exchange rate between Ethereum and Bitcoin once again became "the perfect trap."
The author wrote: "Choose targets on a ten-year cycle; in the entire crypto market, you have only one choice: Bitcoin." This judgment seems too conservative in the short-term fluctuations, but from a cross-cycle perspective, it remains the only strategy with a mathematically positive expectation.
VI. The long night is coming: guarding the night in a perfect storm
The market environment in February 2025 is already completely different from that in November 2023:
• Monetary policy: From expectations of interest rate cuts to the tightening panic brought by the "Walsh Shock"
• Geopolitics: From Middle Eastern tensions to political risks triggered by the "Epstein files"
• Liquidity: From ETF inflows to cross-market deleveraging
• AI narrative: From the frenzy ignited by ChatGPT to skepticism about commercialization
But some things never change.
The author writes: "Bitcoin serves as the anti-inflationary tool. Its essence is a Rug against fiat currency." When the U.S. government's fiscal deficit is expected to reach $601 billion in the first three months of 2026, when interest payments on national debt exceed $1 trillion, and when tariff policies and political uncertainties overlap—the fragility of the fiat currency system becomes even more pronounced.
In November 2023, the author said: "The long night is coming; you begin to watch from this night until death."
In February 2025, the long night seemed to have truly arrived. But the Bitcoin held by the night watchman remains that scarce asset with a total supply of 21 million, algorithmically constrained, permissionless, and globally liquid.
VII. Reaffirmation of strategy: Accumulate coins in bear markets, cash out at the top in bull markets
The strategy given by the author at the end of the text is simple to the point of being brutal: "In a bear market, accumulate coins in batches, and in a bull market, cash out at the top."
This strategy was effective during the window period from November 2023 to March 2024. Those investors who gradually built positions around $34,000 still held considerable unrealized gains even after experiencing the crash in February 2025.
But the phrase "cashing out at the top" is easier said than done. When Bitcoin reached $73,000, how many people chose to take profits? When ETF funds continued to flow in, how many believed "this time is different"?
The market always punishes greed in dramatic ways and tests patience through long periods of sideways movement. The crash in February 2025 may be a reckoning for the excessive optimism of 2024.
Conclusion: The gap in the door remains thumb-width.
The author wrote in 2023: "This is the fourth halving in Bitcoin's history, and it is the last opportunity for ordinary investors, like a gap in the ancient city wall under the setting sun, only a thumb's width remains. When this door closes, the last chance to get on board will also disappear."
After 16 months, is this door still open?
From a price perspective, Bitcoin at $75,000 is more than double the price of $34,522. But from the perspective of scarcity, the halving has been completed, the annual inflation rate has dropped to 0.9%, the ETF channel has opened, and institutional allocation has become a trend.
That gap in the door may have narrowed, but it has not completely closed.
For those who read that article in 2023 and chose to believe, the storm in 2025 is a test and a verification. It tests the ability of position management and verifies the correctness of the core logic.
For those who have just come into contact with Bitcoin, the price in the storm may deserve more attention than the frenzy. After all, the strategy of "holding onto the Bitcoin in hand" is never too late— as long as you can bear the volatility, understand scarcity, and are willing to become the night watchman who persists until death.
Did you also read that article in 2023? How did the decisions back then affect your current holdings? Feel free to share your story in the comments!
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Disclaimer: This article is based on a review of historical articles and market analysis and does not constitute investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile; please make cautious decisions based on your own risk tolerance.#V神卖币 #黄金白银反弹 #Strategy增持比特币 #爱泼斯坦案烧向币圈 #AI专属社交网络Moltbook $BTC
