XRP key support lost, market direction is changing
Ripple (\u003ct-66/\u003e) has recently been performing poorly. The $1.77 support level, previously seen as a "bull-bear dividing line," has been breached, and this position was recently considered a key defense line determining short-term fate.
More notably, the low point of $1.61 formed in April 2025 is also being repeatedly tested, and market tension is clearly rising. From a funding perspective, the CMF indicator has been continuously running below -0.05, indicating that funds are accelerating outflow; while the RSI briefly rebounded above 50, it quickly lost momentum, and the bulls' counterattack is clearly weak.
From bullish to weakening, the bulls have not gone far.
Looking back at early January this year, XRP experienced a remarkable surge. The price once soared to $2.28, pushing the mid-term structure to bullish. At that time, many expected XRP to continue challenging the key resistance of $2.40.
But reality quickly poured cold water on it. The bulls stopped at $2.40, and the subsequent wave of selling in Bitcoin also dragged down the overall market. XRP failed to gain sustained new demand, and the upward momentum quickly collapsed, returning to a downward trajectory.
The long-term fundamentals are still in play, but it's not the story for now.
If we extend the perspective, XRP is not without highlights. Ripple is advancing compliance layouts in multiple countries, and the ecological construction around stablecoin RLUSD and cross-border payments indeed helps long-term demand growth.
In addition, the XRPL ecosystem is still expanding. For example, the XRP lending protocol launched by Evernorth aims to activate idle XRP on-chain. Once scaled, such applications could indeed become a new source of demand.
But the problem is that these positives are more of a long-term narrative, providing limited help for the price movements in the coming weeks.
The signals given by the technicals: the rebound looks more like a selling point.
From a trading perspective, the current structure still leans bearish. The 4-hour chart shows that if XRP rebounds to the $1.85–$1.94 range, it is more likely an opportunity for bears to re-enter rather than a trend reversal.
In this situation, some traders may view $1.50 or even $1.39 as potential downward targets. The structure of daily and 3-day cycles still remains bearish, further enhancing the confidence of the bears.
Of course, the risk boundaries are also clear:
If the 4-hour closing price stands above $1.85, bears need to be alert.
If it breaks above $1.94, the current bearish judgment is basically invalid.
A genuine improvement in trend requires at least a price stabilization above $2.
In conclusion.
Overall, the breach of $1.77 has completely weakened XRP's mid-term structure, and the short-term remains defensive. Although the long-term fundamentals have not collapsed, before the trend truly reverses, the market is more likely to maintain a weak oscillating rhythm.
For traders, patiently waiting for a rebound confirmation and a clear stop-loss is more important than blindly bottom-fishing.
Whether XRP can regain market confidence will take time and clearer signals to prove.
This article is merely a market observation and does not constitute any investment advice.
