The market this time did not dispute expectations — the most unpleasant scenario has materialized. The end of the month and the final chord of Q4 2025 turned out to be rich in sharp movements and mass liquidations. It is noteworthy that not only retail participants were caught in the crossfire: even large wallets with confident PNL from previous months were forced to reassess their positions, in some cases completely flipping.
Pressure may persist at the beginning of the week. The stock market has not yet given a full signal for a sell-off, although the pre-market already looks weak. Against this background, three sensitive factors remain: uncertainty with the US budget, the risk of a government shutdown, and Sailor's positioning with his 'critical zone'.
Let's consider the key scenarios for the development of events.
Scenario 1 — return to FVG and further decline
Liquidity is concentrated around $80k: the stops of those who entered shorts late and orders waiting for a retest. A significant part of the movement occurred over the weekend when large players were restricted in maneuvers. Despite a noticeable weekly outflow of capital, a scenario with a repeated false upward impulse and a subsequent downward reaction from this zone looks logical.
Scenario 2 — direct continuation of the fall
Without complex constructions: with the opening of the American session, the market may simply accelerate the downward movement. In focus — the zone of past highs of the previous cycle and the psychological level $70k, which traditionally attracts the price.
Scenario 3 — closing the imbalance and attempting to change the trend
So far, it seems the least likely, but it is able to restore the bullish structure. After the closure of FVG, the market may give an impulse to the range $80–82k and attempt to consolidate above with the formation of a base.
