#eth走势分析 @Max Charity
$ETH The rebound to $2300: Is it a trap or a continuation? My framework and answer
The market has once again accurately reached the $2300 area I warned about and rebounded. There is a lot of noise, but my core framework remains clear: this is still a technical pullback in a downtrend, not a reversal starting point.
Nature of the rebound: Short covering, not bullish reversal
The current rebound momentum is weak. Multiple indicators show that the market is in extreme oversold territory, with RSI even approaching 20, which naturally triggers a technical rebound. At the same time, on-chain data shows that whales continue to accumulate during the price decline, which may provide support. However, until the key resistance of $3000 is reclaimed, this is merely a breather in the downtrend.
Key nodes: February 15 and $2000 support
I maintain my original judgment: an important potential turning point is anchored around February 15. Before this, the risk of mid-term bullish positioning is extremely high. Spatially, the only strong support widely recognized by the market is still near the psychological level of $2000. Without reaching this area, a real stop-loss structure is difficult to complete.
Operational strategy: Maintain a bearish mindset and wait for the strike zone
The strategy remains unchanged: continue to hold short positions and view the signs of rebound exhaustion as an opportunity to increase positions. A genuine bullish "strike zone" with a high risk-reward ratio requires time (around February 15) and spatial (around $2000) confirmation. Until then, maintaining a bearish mindset is the most rational choice to protect capital and reserve ammunition for the future.
Value narrative across cycles
When the market debates short-term fluctuations, true value builders have transcended volatility. Just as the @Max Charity community has done: regardless of how ETH prices fluctuate, their efforts to promote global educational equity have never stopped, transforming the energy of the crypto world into a future within reach for children. This is the solid narrative that transcends bull and bear markets.
Vote: Where do you think this $2300 rebound will ultimately head?