Yes, it’s really ugly right now
— the screenshot shows BTC at 76,620 $ (with a recent low around ~74,508 $ and a close around 76,689 $), in the midst of a violent drop since the ~97-100k at the end of January.
What irony in the end, 2 years of efforts reduced to nothing
We are desperately testing the 75k zone
(major psychological support + former low of consolidation), and the fact that it is timidly bouncing back towards 77k doesn't change much: the structure remains very bearish in the short term.
Updated technical analysis (beginning of February 2026, price ~76-77k) Overall structure: We are in a deep correction post-ATH 2025 (~126k). The price has broken the long moving averages (MA99 ~92-93k, MA25 ~89k, MA7 ~82k all bearish and far above). It's a clear lower high/lower low on daily/weekly since the end of January.
👉Key indicators:
⚡RSI(6): 10.68 → extreme oversold (capitulation territory). Historically, levels <15-20 often precede a violent relief rally, but it can remain oversold for a long time in a bear market.
⚡Stoch RSI: 0.00 → completely exhausted, signal of potential imminent rebound if volume returns.
⚡Volume: Spike on the drop (massive liquidations), but weak buying volume → no clear buying capitulation yet.
⚡Bollinger Bands: Recent probable squeeze followed by bearish expansion → high volatility, downside priority for now.
‼️Immediate critical levels: Major support: $74,500–75,000 (low wick + potential CME gap + fib 0.618 retracement of the bull cycle).
Macro support: 72–73k (if broken → acceleration towards 68–70k, lower 100-week MA zone).
Resistance: 78–80k (first wall, former broken support), then 82–84k (MA7/former control), 85–88k for a real reversal.
😭 Sentiment & flows: Extreme Fear (Fear & Greed ~18-20), persistent ETF outflows (but slowing), options market with 75k puts in high demand (as much as 100k calls before). Whales are accumulating a bit on weakness, but not enough to stop the pressure.
✨✨✨✨✨Scenarios for the coming days/weeks Bearish continuation (probability ~60% short term):
Fragile holding at 76–77k, then breakdown <75k → cascading liquidations towards 72–73k (final shakeout). Catalysts: macro hawkish (uncertain Fed, strong DXY), risk-off rotation towards gold/silver, more ETF outflows.
Historically bullish February (+14% average), but after a red January like this, often a "last leg" bearish before bottom.
Relief rally / capitulation bounce (probability ~30–35%):
Extreme oversold + Stoch RSI 0 → violent technical rebound towards 80–85k if hold >75k and buying volume spikes (possible daily reversal candle). It would be a dead cat bounce or true bottom if ETF inflows return + macro improves (dovish Fed signals).
Worst case (10–15%): Violent break <74k → 68–70k (bear market confirmation, revisit 2025 lows?). Unlikely without a major catalyst (like a macro crisis).
In summary: it's horrible and fragile, the 75k test is decisive — if it breaks with volume, prepare for lower (72–68k like a magnet).
But the extreme oversold + historical February + maximum fear sentiment → a sharp rebound is not excluded (80–85k quickly if reversal).
😭‼️The market screams capitulation, but without strong buying confirmation, the bears still control.
Are you watching like me?: Holding or breaking 75–74.5k.
